318
FXUS64 KLCH 281147
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An upper ridge is centered over West Texas this morning while the
trough that has been over the eastern sections of the CONUS has
shifted to along or just off the east coast. A narrow upper
disturbance/shear axis extends from outer banks of NC to the coast
of LA. The upper ridge axis extends east-northeast into the
Ozarks and mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface a weak trough
is roughly across the I-10 corridor in SE TX and LA. Near calm to
very light northeast winds with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
are north of the interstate with light south winds and dewpoints
in the upper 70s to around 80 are along the coast. Scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms are along the boundary. The subtropical
ridge extends from the Atlantic and into the gulf.

Through sunrise the convection along the weak boundary is
expected to maintain itself, but dissipate somewhat after sunrise.
The trough is anticipated to gradually lift north today as the
subtropical ridge nudges in. Convection across the northern zones
is expected to be suppressed being closer to the upper ridge,
however another round of convection may occur along the coast as
the sea breeze develops in the late morning to afternoon
timeframe. Enough cloud cover and ever so slightly lower dewpts
may keep most of the northern zones out of heat adv criteria,
however interior SE TX will likely have spotty 108-109 apparent
temps this afternoon since clouds and convection will be most
limited there.

The upper ridge will build east across the South this weekend. While
isolated to scattered afternoon convection is anticipated
Saturday and Sunday due to the high amount of moisture and the
ridge not being directly overhead, higher dewpoints will have
advected back into interior SE TX and Cen LA. This may increase
apparent temps a few degrees from Friday and creating the need for
a heat adv across more zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Generally there isn`t much going on in the longterm forecast period.
Global models are pretty confident in a strong high pressure ridge
sitting right overtop the region from at least July 1 (Monday) to
about the 3rd or 4th. Surface high pressure ridging appears to amble
about the eastern seaboard and northeast US. Deep surface moisture
should remain entrenched in the area and without a full shut down on
convective potential from high pressure all the way to the surface,
a decent chance of daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be
expected.

A parade of robust shortwave trofs moving over the nrn Plains states
Wednesday and Thursday will likely perform two functions: wear and
weaken upper high pressure ridge and shunt southward the surface
high pressure area. As a result, a decrease in shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible starting the fourth
(Thursday) and continuing into the fifth (Friday). Considering July
Fourth is a week away and also a holiday largely celebrated
outdoors, this forecaster`s confidence that celebrations won`t get
rained out is low. For those planning outdoor activities, it is best
to keep an eye on the rainfall and temperature forecast over the
coming days.

As for those temperatures... Forecast high temperatures look to
hover in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas and low to mid 90s
for coastal areas through the next work week. Normal high temps for
the period are around 92 F, so temps will likely run a few degrees
above normal. Humidity should also remain elevated next work week;
combined with these high temperatures, expect cautionary Heat
Statements to be in effect for at least some portions of the area.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas of rain with a few storms will continue through the early
morning across the I-10 corridor terminals. This will cause
intermittent lower ceilings and lower vis. Mostly VFR conditions
are anticipated late this morning through tonight, however
additional storms will be possible this afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland causing patchy lower vis and ceilings again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go
along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days,
scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  75  95  74 /  20  10  30  10
LCH  91  79  92  78 /  40  10  20   0
LFT  93  80  93  78 /  60  20  50  10
BPT  93  80  93  79 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-259-260.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05