254
FXUS64 KLCH 220833
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

This forecast will be the tale of two ridges. At the surface,
high pressure will be building off the east coast. As this feature
strengthens, it will cause our winds to shift and come from the
south. The warm, moist marine air will cause our heat index values
to skyrocket and will be teasing the heat advisory criteria of
108. Aloft, the second ridge is centered overhead and will slowly
start to retrograde through the weekend. The subsidence from this
ridge will limit convection, with only isolated showers and storms
in the afternoon each day this weekend. This is a strong ridge
for this time of year, with heights at 500 mb around 594 dm.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid- to
upper 90s. Mostly clear skies will also maximize our diurnal
heating, with isolated pockets of triple digits likely for central
Louisiana. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

To start the period, weak surface high pressure will ridge across
the northern Gulf of Mexico coast providing mainly a light southerly
flow off the Gulf. This pattern at the surface should continue
through the week. Therefore, good low level moisture and high
humidity is expected to be in place.

Rain chances from the moisture will depend on the position of the
upper level ridge across the southern US.

On Tuesday, the upper level ridge should be centered over west Texas
and have enough influence to limit diurnal activity to mainly slight
chance. However, this will allow the heat to be the main issue and
apparent temperature tool has readings in the 108F - 110F range
which would be heat advisory criteria.

During the mid week to the end of week, (Wednesday - Friday,) a
short wave expanding along the east coast looks to cut into the
eastern portion of the upper level ridge, and therefore, expect a
better chance for diurnal daytime heating and sea breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms. The higher pops will come over eastern
portions of the forecast area, east central Louisiana, through south
central Louisiana and along the Atchafalaya basin, where the upper
level ridge will be weaker.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail for the duration of
the TAF cycle. Due to the precip this afternoon and evening,
patchy fog will be possible overnight, however it is not expected
to be dense nor significantly impact the TAFs.
An upper ridge is building more into the region, which will help
in suppressing convection, however isolated showers are
certainly not out of the question for the late afternoon to
evening hours.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Winds will slowly decrease in strength through the weekend and
the pressure gradient decreases. At the same time winds will shift
to become onshore by Saturday afternoon. Buoys waves between 2
and four feet. Observations and the most recent scattermeter pass
shows 10 to 15 knots from the east with weaker winds farther east.
High pressure aloft will limit convection through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  72  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
LCH  93  74  93  76 /   0   0  20   0
LFT  94  75  94  77 /  10   0  20   0
BPT  93  75  94  77 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87