Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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624 FXUS64 KLCH 190300 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Updated the near term POP/wx grids based on radar trends...88D imagery shows that ongoing mainly light rain continues pushing slowly wwd although not diminishing as previously thought. Any pockets of real convection have been confined to the coastal waters for several hours and this should remain the case, although did retain isolated thunder mention for land areas just in case. Elsewhere, no real changes to inherited grids/zones. As far as going watches/warnings/advisories go in relation to PTC #1 in the swrn Gulf of Mexico, nothing was changed this evening as no significant changes were made by NHC with their 03z update. Updates already sent. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Deep slug of tropical moisture is moving over the region with scattered heavier showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Expect this trend to continue into Wednesday as PTC1 churns in the west- southwest Gulf. Primary updates to this short term forecast revolved around the increase in wind speeds in coastal areas as the gradient from PTC1 is expected to continue tightening. This has resulted in a possible increase in tide / surge levels in south Jefferson county to up to 4.0 feet in the coming days. This increase in winds may also require a coastal Wind Advisory from early Wednesday into the afternoon. Convection producing heavy downpours may still spread over coastal Texas counties, thus the Flash Flood Watch will continue until Thursday morning. Otherwise, slightly drier air and high pressure will move into north Louisiana/Mississippi late Wednesday into Thursday helping to limit rain chances inland. Those along the coastline should see a return to somewhat normal diurnal convective patterns on Thursday. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 To start the period, the deeper tropical moisture will have moved off to the west and an upper level ridge will begin to build in from the east. Therefore, it looks like pretty typical summer weather with hot and humid days with muggy night. Diurnal type scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon with daytime heating and the seabreeze. These conditions will extend into the weekend. Late in the weekend, guidance shows another low pressure system coming out of the Central American Gyre and developing over the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the upper level ridge looks to hold across Gulf South states, and therefore should keep any system down in the southern Gulf along with this time keeping any tropical moisture closer to the system and not affecting the forecast area. Therefore, typical summer weather into early next week. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Local 88Ds show mainly stratiform rain moving wwd across the forecast area at the moment, allowing for mainly VFR conditions to prevail...this precip should gradually diminish while continuing its wwd trek through the evening. Forecast soundings indicate some low clouds are likely to develop across the swrn terminals later this evening, with MVFR ceilings expected...VFR elsewhere. Elevated erly winds to linger through tonight, then really pickup again tomorrow as stronger winds aloft mix down. MVFR ceilings are also expected to spread to the Acadiana terminals as well tomorrow morning. Widespread precip to return by mid-afternoon. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern Mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week, while the prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 90 72 92 / 40 30 0 10 LCH 75 90 75 90 / 60 70 30 60 LFT 75 91 77 91 / 30 50 10 50 BPT 76 90 77 91 / 80 80 40 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241- 252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...25