Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
658 FXUS64 KLCH 102055 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 355 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A smattering of showers and thunderstorms developed today under weakness aloft and surface boundary moving into the region. Thankfully rain-cooled air mass kept temperatures generally in check; most areas have topped out in the upper 80s to around 90 with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F. The frontal boundary slides south tonight, ushering in slightly drier air by tomorrow. This should assist with keeping temps around 90F tomorrow and upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday. The front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon in the short term period. However, high pressure ridges down into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday and will start suppressing convection more and more each day. PoPs Tuesday afternoon will range 30 to 50 percent and only 20 to 30 Wednesday. The drying trend will also impact temperatures and heat indices. Heat indices will range within the 90s each day: mid to upper 90s Tuesday and low to mid 90s Wednesday. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Strong high pressure shifts east into the eastern third of the country by late next week. As a result, daytime highs will peak Friday/Saturday in the middle 90s with increasing onshore flow by the weekend. As the weekend and early next week approaches, moisture could round the western periphery of the high pressure and move into the central GoM. This would bring widespread showers/storms to the region with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. Uncertainty remains high from run to run, but overall ensemble forecasts continue to show higher probabilities of heavier rain. In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of the gulf coast by next weekend and early next week. 78 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weakness aloft has resulted in area showers and isolated thunderstorms to form across Gulf terminals with ceilings ranging from 2500 to 5000 feet. Expect this trend to continue with all terminals expecting at least vicinity thunderstorms through the early evening. With growing updrafts, tropical funnels will be possible through 20z or so, and when updrafts come crashing down, variable winds and heavy rain will be possible. After sundown, expect convective activity to diminish with light variable winds and generally VFR ceilings. Some guidance is hinting at light ground fog again overnight, but confidence is low. For now, mentions of this were not included in TAFs. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weak surface frontal boundary will move down into coastal waters resulting in light variable winds and increased rain chances. Expect much of the same Tuesday and Wednesday with diurnal showers and thunderstorms and variable winds. The front washes out towards the end of the work week and a return to dry conditions and southerly flow due to high pressure developing aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 89 66 89 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 74 90 71 89 / 20 40 10 30 LFT 74 92 72 92 / 20 40 10 30 BPT 74 92 73 91 / 20 30 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...11