Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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312 FXUS64 KLCH 150814 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak surface boundary, basically a dew point delineation axis from dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, is located from the lakes area of upper southeast Texas to the middle Atchafalaya Basin. With northwest flow aloft, a disturbance is working with higher moisture of 2 inch PWAT along the boundary and theta-e axis to produce clusters of showers and a few storms along it moving to the southeast. This boundary will continue to sink to the south and reach the coast by the end of the day, initial shower activity decreasing ahead of it by mid morning, then redeveloping later in the afternoon with daytime heating and the arrival of the next disturbance. Surface boundary will stall along the coast for Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface low, with some tropical or sub- tropical potential will head toward the South and North Carolina coast. Developing northeast flow over the southeast US will help bring a remnant mid level low back to the southwest and into the region before it is absorbed into the Carolina system to produce a broad trough just east of the forecast area. The combination of the old surface boundary and upper level trough, will bring a continuation of shower or storm chances, mainly during the afternoon during the early part of the week. The best chance will be over eastern portions of the forecast area, and on Monday. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper level ridging will begin to build into the forecast area on Wednesday as the broad Mid-Atlantic trough moves northward into the northeast US. The ridge will strengthen and hold over the immediate area through the end of the week with very little if any chance for rain and above normal temperatures. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A frontal pattern stalling as it moves offshore through the remainder of the nocturnal hours has been the focal region for diminishing VCTS / RA moving S to SSE. Behind the front slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints will generally keep conditions VFR into the twilight hours. That said, with some fresh moisture on the surface, patchy FG or ground BR is possible between the twilight hours through sunrise. Thereafter, brief patches of BR / FG will quickly lift with diurnal ceilings remaining SCT to BKN through the mid- afternoon- mainly above 5kft. Guidance suggest moisture convergence may allow for convection during mid morning through mid afternoon across eastern sites along Acadiana. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Mainly light and variable winds over the coastal waters this early morning. A weak surface boundary will move into the coastal waters later today, then stall along or just offshore through Tuesday. This will bring a period of light offshore flow to go along with low seas. There will be a chance for a few showers or storms along this boundary, mainly during the late morning through early evening for the near shore waters, then late at night into the early morning for the offshore waters. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 68 85 68 / 10 10 30 0 LCH 87 72 88 71 / 30 10 20 0 LFT 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 40 0 BPT 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30