Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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008 FXUS64 KLCH 212329 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Ridging aloft is still centered over south Texas, with a ridge extending across LA and into Mississippi. At the surface, high pressure stretches across the Gulf Coast. The weather today and tonight will be hot and dry as high temperatures continue to be several degrees above normal for this time of year. Sunday will be similar to today as the ridge starts to slowly shift eastward. Even with the change, our temperatures will remain stubbornly in the 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s, keeping the muggy weather around for a bit longer. By Monday we will start to see a change to our forecast as the peak of the ridge will be east of our area. The weaker ridge will allow for more showers to develop and help our temperatures decrease. No relief from the heat yet, but change will be coming soon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The start of next week will be a welcome change as a diffuse cold front will move across the region then stall in the Gulf of Mexico. With this front, we will see an increase in rain chances, lower dew points,and temperatures. The best of the three will be the highs dropping into the 80s, followed by the dropping dew points, which will fall into the 60s. Behind the front, a dry continental airmass will settle overhead and remain in place through the rest of the forecast period. This dry air will keep our high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s with lows in the 60s. Overall, next week will be much nicer than the previous few weeks. Further south, in the Gulf, we are continuing to monitor a broad area of low pressure that the NHC has given a 60% chance of developing over the next 7 days. Models have been inconsistent with this system`s strength or general track. The trends have been for the main threat from any development to be to the east of our area, but everyone should keep a close eye on the forecast for the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail during the period. This will bring fair conditons with light winds. Some patchy fog will be possible mainly between 22/09z-13z and will have a tempo group with MVFR visibility to cover that. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure offshore will continue the trend of hot, dry and calm conditions. Seas are below 2 feet and will stay there through the weekend. In addition winds will be light and variable. The pattern will start to change around midweek as a front moves offshore, increasing winds. In the Gulf the NHC has a 60% region for development of a tropical cyclone. There is little consistency between individual models or model run-to-run consistency. It will be important to keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 73 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 75 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07