Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
603 FXUS64 KLCH 261733 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1233 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The 26/12z upper air sounding from KLCH still shows a decent cap in place, so not expecting significant shower activity today. Otherwise, a breezy, hot, and humid day is in store. No changes to the forecast at this time. More on the holiday forecast that includes a Heat Advisory and what the potential for storms will be with the afternoon package. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The forecast for the Memorial Day holiday weekend remains unchanged, with high pressure remaining the dominant feature in our forecast. This ridge is centered over Mexico and is unusually strong for this time of year, with heights in the 97th percentile. This sinking air from the ridge will keep our skies mostly clear, enhancing the diurnal heating. The subsidence associated with the trough will also add to the already hot conditions. At the surface, the high pressure is to our east, which is causing consistent southern flow. This pattern will produce highs in the low-to-mid 90s across the CWA, with heat index values just below the criteria today with values around 107. Monday will see the pattern reach its peak, with actual temperatures in the high 90s across central Louisiana and southeast Texas. We could even see a few isolated spots reach triple digits. With the abundance of low-level moisture, heat index values will soar well above the 108 criteria, especially in the interior of southeast Texas. A Heat Advisory will be issued for inland counties and parishes on Monday afternoon. During the afternoon/evening on Monday, the ridge will begin to retreat. During this time, a short-wave trough will dip into the southeast. This feature will produce some decent rain chances in the evening, with PoPs around 20%. While widespread showers are unlikely, favorable CAPE, shear, and lapse rates provide a high ceiling for any thunderstorms that do manage to form. The SPC has placed parts of Rapides and Avoyelles under a Slight Risk (2/5) while the rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather. The main threat will be strong downbursts and large hail. In particular, the downburst threat will be one to watch closely, with DCAPE averaging over 1000 J/kg for Monday afternoon and the MBURST index going above 9, indicating that storms that do form could produce damaging winds. Tuesday will see more widespread cloud cover as the ridge continues to retreat and a weak boundary moves across the CWA. This will lead to sporadic showers and thunderstorm activity, but shear and CAPE will be less favorable. Still, the SPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (1/5) for Tuesday. The boundary will also provide us with a nice shot of drier and cooler air, with temperatures dropping back into the low 90s and Heat Index values around 100. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Large mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. with ridging aloft over Mexico expected to amplify Wednesday through next weekend. This will generally keep a west northwest to northwest flow aloft over the region during this period. Southeast winds expected to keep increased low level moisture across the area. This, combined with periodic weak upper level disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, should be enough to generate isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. Blended guidance generally shows a 20-40% range each afternoon. Lows each morning in the upper 60s to near 70 north of I-10, lower 70s further south. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Mainly VFR conditions for the remainder of the afternoon with scattered to broken clouds just at or above 3k feet. Southerly breezes will also continue until sunset with gusts up to around 20 knots. During the night, expect MVFR conditions due to low clouds redeveloping under the cap with ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet. A few spots may see a light visibility restriction due to the mix of patchy fog and haze. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ASCAT imagery from this evening shows winds between 10 and 15 knots across our waters, with a fetch of slightly higher winds in the western Gulf. Because of this the Caution Statement for small craft will be allowed to expire this afternoon. Buoys and Altimery show waves around 4 feet with a period of around 6 seconds. Waves will be higher in the western waters of the CWA, with waves reaching 6 feet. Starting on Monday evening, the high pressure to our east will become weaker, which will reduce our PGF, which will turn decrease our winds. From Tuesday through the end of the week, sea conditions will be benign, with wave heights below 5 feet and winds less than 15 knots. Little to no convection is expected this week in our waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 74 95 70 / 0 20 10 10 LCH 88 78 92 75 / 0 10 20 0 LFT 91 79 94 76 / 0 10 20 10 BPT 90 78 94 76 / 0 0 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044- 045. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201- 259>262. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...07