Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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297 FXUS64 KLCH 250439 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast area from the east allowing for a persistent southerly flow to continue over the weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico will continue to be the main play for the mid and upper levels. Therefore, low level Gulf moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area, keeping humidity values and dew points high. However, with the cap from the upper level ridge, not expecting any shower activity. Once again will have to watch for any complexes that form over north and central Texas, however, all indications that activity will diminish as it tries to reach the forecast area. The main story over the weekend will be the unseasonably very warm temperatures and humid days, with muggy nights. Max afternoon heat index values are forecast to be in the 100F to 105F range and just below heat advisory criteria. It should also be noted that the flow will bring in some residual smoke from seasonal agricultural burning over central/southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the smoke will remain suspended providing a hazy look to the sky. Some particles that do lower will combine with the high humidity to produce some light visibility restrictions, due to patchy fog/haze with the best chance to see reduced visibility overnight and near sunrise. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 As we begin the long term period, ridging aloft extending from Mexico to the Gulf Coast will result in a hot and humid Memorial Day, with temperatures expected to top out in the low to mid 90s through the afternoon. NBM does paint sub-20 POPs across parts of central LA, so a few isolated afternoon showers may become possible during peak heating. However, for the most part another dry day is anticipated. Tuesday looks to again bring unseasonably warm conditions however, some slight reprieve looks to arrive in the form of a weak cold front that will slide through the region during the day. This boundary may be accompanied by some isolated showers Tuesday afternoon, but overall dry conditions are expected. Moving into the mid-week the boundary becomes situated offshore, providing a more easterly flow from late Tuesday through Thursday. This will result in slightly cooler overnight lows (mid 60s/lower 70s vs. low to mid 70s) as well as slightly lower dewpoints. In addition, daytime highs will generally warm in the upper 80s area- wide both Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, we`re not expecting any significantly cooler or drier air next week but this slight dip in temps/dewpoints should be noticeable after a hot and humid weekend. Low end rain chances also can be expected from Wed through Fri, as a couple of weak disturbances are expected to pass overhead in the flow aloft as the Gulf upper ridge backs off a bit. Still, most areas will likely not see much of any rain next week with coverage expected to be widely scattered at best. By the end of the week the boundary offshore looks to lift north through the region as a warm front, likely signaling a return to hot and humid conditions as we head into June. 17 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper level BKN to OVC decks of stratus will prevail over locations inland, north of I-10 with showers / storms weakening over E`rn TX. Concurrently, MVFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours as the humid marine boundary layer continues to usher in low level moisture creating a BKN to OVC deck beneath dry air subsidence around 3kft. Winds will continue due southerly into the morning hours. Northern sites (AEX) have potential to see very brief IFR ceilings during the dawn hours. Patches of periodic BR occurring across coastal locations and will persist through sunrise. Thereafter ceilings will lift and break toward VFR into the midday hours as southerly winds pickup by the early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface high pressure will remain off the Florida coast and ridge into the region. This will keep a persistent southerly flow going across the coastal waters. Winds will occasionally be moderate and gusty over the weekend as a series of surface lows develop over the Plains, and small craft exercise caution may need to be headlined on Saturday night into Sunday to account for this. Otherwise, no significant shower activity is expected over the coastal waters until early next week when a weak frontal boundary nears the coastal waters. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 93 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 76 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 77 92 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 BPT 77 90 77 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...30