Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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178 FXUS64 KLCH 211536 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1036 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 KLCH radar shows a narrow band of scattered showers moving east to west over the coastal waters this morning, while vis satellite depicts CU field developing over inland areas. Although ridging aloft will continue to expand southwest over the area today, sufficient moisture and modest low level forcing should support some scattered showers or isolated storms with heating by early afternoon. Made some minor adjustment to hourly PoP and Wx grids to reflect latest radar and hi-res guidance. Also tweaked hourly T/Td/Winds to reflect recent obs this morning. Although inherited forecast is generally on track, this did result in some minor changes to wording in text products so these were updated. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Wx map shows generally a relaxing pressure gradient compared to yesterday across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, with the Bermuda High firmly established over the Eastern U.S. Radar not showing much precipitation this morning, with only a couple of showers off the Texas coast. Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s along and north of I-10, with mid to upper 70s further south. Tides will remain high this morning. A Coastal Flood Warning continues through 7 PM for Cameron Parish and Lower Jefferson County for water levels between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW, and Southern Calcasieu Parish & Southern Orange County for water levels 1.5 to 2.0 feet MHHW. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues through 7 PM for Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, and Lower St. Mary parishes for water levels 1.5 and 2.0 feet MHHW. While water levels will likely remain elevated tonight and this weekend, they are expected to fall below warning and advisory criteria for the next high tide cycle tonight into Saturday morning. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Afternoon highs expected to reach the lower to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values expected in the 100-105 range. The precipitation expected to diminish by sunset, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s. For Saturday and Sunday, the large mid to upper level ridge of high pressure expected to intensify and move over the region. The subsidence from this high is expected to limit precipitation chances to less than 20% during the afternoon hours. Highs in the mid to upper 90s expected. Maximum heat index values expected in the 102-107 range, getting close to the Heat Advisory Criteria of 108. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Hot and humid temperatures will be the main story this week as a broad, upper-level ridge builds from the west into the Gulf. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 90s, with dew points in the mid-70s. We could even see some widespread triple digits in central Louisiana. This combo will lead to heat index values just below heat advisory levels, but that could change if the axis of the ridge shifts farther north. PoPs will be diurnally driven for most of the week, with afternoon showers and pulse thunderstorms. With the ridge being stronger to the west, Acadiana can expect more showers than the rest of the region. Around mid-week, an upper-level trough will dig south as the ridge retrogrades. Both the GFS and Euro bring widespread showers to the area. The widespread rain will also do wonders to drop our temperatures back to the climatological averages of the low 90s. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) East winds picking up near 12-15 kts with gusts 20-23 kts at BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA by 15z through the afternoon, diminishing to 5-7 kts after 00z. Afternoon SHRA expected between 20-24z, but with chances around 30% left just VCSH. For AEX, slightly lower winds expected, with no mention of VCSH. VFR expected to prevail through the period. 08/DML && .MARINE... Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. High pressure aloft will limit precipitation chances Saturday through early next week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 72 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 91 74 93 75 / 20 10 0 0 LFT 92 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 0 BPT 91 76 93 75 / 20 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074- 241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...08