Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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832 FXUS64 KLCH 212043 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 343 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a broad ridge of high pressure sprawling across much of the SE US. Meanwhile, a couple of areas of disturbed weather are noted over the southern Gulf into the western Caribbean, and also off the NE FL coast (neither of which will cause trouble for our area). At the surface, high pressure is centered over the mid-Atlantic states, ridging west and southwest toward the southern plains. Visible satellite imagery shows CU/TCU scattered across the area, some of which are deep enough to support some widely scattered showers (per latest KLCH radar images). Convection remains sparse enough to be considered "hit or miss", and outside of areas cooled by these showers, temperatures have risen into the lower 90s. Humidity levels have stayed elevated enough to produce heat index values from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Coastal flooding will continue to diminish this evening as easterly winds continue to relax. The coastal flood warning and advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 PM with water levels expected to recede. Water levels will rise again with high tide Saturday morning, but peak crests are expected to be marginal and would produce just some short-lived "nuisance" flooding on roadways and in low-lying areas. Further inland, river flood warnings along the lower reaches of the Sabine, Neches and Calcasieu Rivers should be enough to account for the effects of tides in addition to elevated flows from upstream. Over the weekend, hot and humid conditions will be the primary concern as the ridge aloft continues to build over the area. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The main story in the short term will be the ridging aloft and at the surface. A surface ridge of high pressure will persist from the mid Atlantic southwest across LA into E TX. This will produce a generally light SE-S wind field over the region. Meanwhile, the mid/upper ridge will continue to migrate southwest tonight into Saturday, becoming centered over the region. Drier air aloft will spread into the region, with PWATs falling to between roughly 1.3 and 1.6 inches, while midlevel RH values will be less than 40% during the daytime. The warm, dry and subsident airmass will suppress convection and, outside of a very isolated pop-up shower, conditions should be hot and dry. High temperatures will climb into the middle 90s across the area but, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s mixing to the surface, apparent T/heat indices should stay between 98 and 103 degrees. Sunday is expected to be a near repeat of Saturday, although the ridge aloft will continue to retrograde further west into TX, with its main axis oriented southeast over the NW Gulf coast. This should still be enough to keep rain chances low, however the cap will weaken somewhat to allow some isolated to widely scattered convection to form mainly across southern portions of the area, driven by sea/bay breezes. Unfortunately, this will not be enough to keep temperatures from soaring back into the middle 90s, with upper 90s expected across interior SE TX into central LA. With dewpoints not expected to be quite as low as on Saturday, max apparent temps are expected to be between 100 and 106 degrees. While this is still below criteria for a Heat Advisory, individuals should use caution during outdoor activities (take breaks, drink water, etc.), especially those who are sensitive or unaccustomed to the heat. Regarding the tropics, a weak trough or low is expected to gradually emerge in the Bay of Campeche tonight into Saturday. This system is expected to follow a track similar to Alberto, but with the ridge of high pressure strengthening north of the disturbance, the system is expected to remain weak, with the strongest winds staying confined closer to its center and not as broad as they were with Alberto. Thus, no local marine or coastal impacts are expected from this disturbance. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward toward the SW states through the early part of the week. It will continue to be elongated along the NW Gulf coast Monday, but begin to weaken on Tuesday as shortwave energy digs south across OK/AR. By midweek, the ridge will become more consolidated over the SW US, with a trough developing over the east. Moisture will begin to increase across the area with PWATs climbing back to around 2 inches or greater. Minimal capping and reduced convective temps, especially over eastern portions of the area, will allow daily rain chances to increase through the workweek. PoPs will be at the low end of the scattered spectrum on Monday, gradually trending upward toward the 40 to 60 percent range through the middle of the week. Outside of any cooling showers, daytime temperatures are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s each day. Increasing rh values will make things feel a little more oppressive, with daily max heat index values potentially climbing to between 105 and 110 degrees, and Heat Advisories may be needed. Overnight temps will likely provide little relief with lows only falling into the middle to upper 70s. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions across the area as CU continue to develop across the area. A few small SHRA are beginning to form over coastal areas and these will likely expand in coverage toward the southern terminals over the next few hours. Coverage will likely stay widely scattered so no more than VC mention in TAFs attm, but any activity that impacts airports could result in brief reductions in vsby/cigs. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail through the period with winds E-SE 5-12 KT diminishing after sunset. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight as the pressure gradient across the region relaxes. Winds will gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week, with a light to moderate onshore flow to prevail through the week. No headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters through the next several days. High pressure aloft will limit precipitation chances over the weekend into early next week. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 95 72 97 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 74 93 74 93 / 20 0 0 20 LFT 74 94 75 94 / 20 10 0 20 BPT 75 93 75 94 / 10 0 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074- 241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24