Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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602 FXUS64 KLCH 231726 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern, both at the surface and aloft. The main weather concern will be high temperatures and dew points. WPC ensemble tables show that the ridge aloft is quite strong for this time of year and is above the 90th percentile. The strongest part of the ridge is centered over Texas, with lower heights to the east. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 90s, with the heat index reaching 105 in central Louisiana and the interior portions in southeast Texas. On Monday, we will see our higher dew points as surface high pressure on the east coast will cause our winds to become onshore. Dew points will quickly rise to the upper 70s, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. This combination will lead to heat index values at or above our heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees. Showers and storms will be isolated as the ridge will suppress convection. Acadiana will be the most likely to see convection, with PoPs around 20 to 30 percent and the rest of the region around 10 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Weak high pressure will be found across the northern Gulf of Mexico and this will allow for low level southerly flow to bring in Gulf moisture and high humidity values. At the beginning of the period the upper level ridge that had been over the forecast area will retrograde back to the west some and this will allow east coast trough to intrude. The weakness aloft will allow daytime heating and sea breeze to work with the Gulf moisture to provide diurnal showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance in the afternoon hours with this pattern persisting through the week. Away from any convection conditions will be on the hot and humid side with max afternoon apparent temperatures ranging from 102F to 108F range, and possibly higher depending on coverage of convection each day. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours across the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Offshore winds are light, between 5 and 15 knots. Waves are less than 5 feet with an 8-second period. The disturbance in the southern Gulf will move onshore into north Mexico this afternoon and does not pose a threat to our waters. Higher than normal tides will continue to be a concern today, with minor coastal inundation expected during high tides. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 97 75 97 / 0 20 0 20 LCH 76 94 76 93 / 0 20 0 20 LFT 77 96 77 95 / 0 40 0 40 BPT 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073- 074-252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15