Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
848 FXUS64 KLCH 252023 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 323 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Another hot and mostly dry afternoon is ongoing across the forecast area, as upper level ridging centered over New Mexico has successfully kept most convection at bay today. Area radar does show a couple of isolated showers over lower Acadiana at this time, with more activity further east over SE LA, while the remainder of the CWA is once again mostly sunny and dry. Temperatures range from the low to mid 90s, while heat index values range from around 102 to 109. Similarly to yesterday, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few more isolated showers pop up over the next couple of hours, especially across Acadiana, before all convection dies with sunset. Upper ridging will gradually retreat westward through the day tomorrow as a more robust trough becomes carved out across the eastern CONUS. With less capping overhead provided by the ridge, better rain chances are expected through tomorrow afternoon especially through peak heating hours. This convection will be driven by the seabreeze and diurnal heating, as is typical of our summer time shower activity, and will die with sunset. Temperatures look to again warm into the low to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon however, the addition of showers and thunderstorms should keep heat index values below advisory criteria. The ridge continues to break down as we head into Thursday, with troughing becoming the dominate feature overhead briefly. This will bring a rather significant uptick in showers and thunderstorms for Thursday, with NBM painting 50-70 POPS across central and south central LA and 25-40 POPS further west. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will again peak through the afternoon hours on Thursday, tapering down with sunset. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The long term is expected to be dominated by a flat ridge aloft centered just to our north while sfc high pressure remains centered over the ern Gulf, maintaining a moist srly low-level flow. Initially, the ridge is progged to be rather weak, and when combined with good lingering moisture (forecast soundings indicating mean RH values to 70 percent and PWAT values upwards of 2.1 inches), daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries, we continue to look at at least widely scattered showers/storms for Friday, especially over the sern zones where the best moisture is progged. By Saturday, the ridge looks to strengthen a bit which should allow for sufficient capping to prevent much convective development over the nrn/wrn zones. The sern 1/4 of the area again has the best rain chances as capping will be least while moisture looks best/deepest. The ridge looks to build nwd, with best capping transitioning to the srn Plains for Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak wave looks to traverse the nrn/cntl Gulf which could lead to a little more convective coverage to end the weekend, with highest POPs yet again over the sern zones. The long term ends Monday and Tuesday with widely scattered convection developing in our moist/unstable summer airmass again mainly near the coast as the ridge axis lingers to our north. The nearby ridge will allow for toasty conditions through the long term, with highs by the end of the period pushing triple digits inland. Combined with forecast dewpoints in the 70s, apparent temps will likely exceed the 108F heat advisory criteria over portions of the area Sunday through Wednesday. 25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Scattered VFR ceilings and light southerly flow will continue through the period. A few isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly across Acadiana and possibly near AEX. Convection will taper with sunset with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go along with mainly low seas. Tomorrow through the weekend, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Coverage looks to be best across the coastal waters through the morning hours. Elevated winds/seas will be possible in and nearby thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 96 74 94 / 0 20 30 60 LCH 78 92 78 93 / 0 40 20 50 LFT 78 93 78 93 / 0 50 20 70 BPT 78 93 77 94 / 0 40 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-143-152>154-243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...17