002
FXUS64 KLCH 250816
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An upper level ridge centered over Texas is expected to continue
have influence over the sensible weather for the forecast area
today. This will limit most convection, with just isolated to
widely scattered activity expected during max heating.

The lack of overall convection is expected to help air
temperatures to soar over the forecast area, away from the coast,
and into the mid to upper 90s. With light south winds allowing for
good low level moisture, dewpoints are expected to stay in the mid
70F range this afternoon. After running the apparent temperature
tool, the combination of the temperatures and humidity will bring
heat index readings to at or above 108F degrees for a majority of
the forecast area. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect
for all but lower southwest Louisiana and lower southeast Texas
from 11 am to 7 pm local.

Over the next couple of days on Wednesday into Thursday, the
upper level ridge will gradually shift to the west allowing for an
upper level trough to cut into the eastern portion of the ridge
bringing about a weakness aloft over the forecast area. This will
allow for an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially from late morning into early evening with daytime
heating. The increase in shower activity will look to help
somewhat keep the heat in check, with widespread afternoon max
heat index values below 108F degrees.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Low level southerly flow will persist during the period. This will
allow for good low level moisture and high humidity values. The
upper level ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the
region. However, the upper ridge looks to be more flat and weaker,
more of a "dirty" ridge. This will allow for daytime heating to
work with the available moisture to produce a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA north of LFT/ARA, with current trends, not expecting to
affect these terminals, or remaining terminals this evening and
overnight. South to southeast winds 8-10 kts expected to diminish
to 4-5 kts or less after 01z, and pick up again by 18z Tuesday.
Slightly higher chances of SHRA/TSRA over Acadiana Tuesday afternoon,
but still limited to 30-40%. Thus, placed only VCTS for LFT/ARA/AEX.
Further west at LCH/BPT, much lower chances expected, with no
mention of VCTS.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
this week. This will allow for mainly a light onshore flow to
continue to go along with mainly low seas.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be isolated at best
today as an upper level ridge continues to have an influence over
the region. This upper level ridge will gradually weaken over the
next couple of days and this will allow for an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity. Convective activity will be higher for
the offshore during the night time into early morning, and for the
nearshore from late morning into the early evening.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  95  75 /  20  10  30  30
LCH  93  78  92  78 /  10   0  40  20
LFT  95  77  94  78 /  30  10  50  30
BPT  93  78  94  77 /  10   0  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...08