Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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025 FXUS64 KLCH 242345 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A broken line of showers and storms will continue to move into the northern zones in response to a trof moving south into the region. A lull in convective activity is expected this evening with diurnal minimum. Another round of isolated to scattered activity can be expected to begin late tomorrow morning to afternoon in response to a cold front dropping south across the NW Gulf Coast States. Currently, neither severe weather or flooding is expected as a result. This activity will continue into the late afternoon hours before tapering out of the area. Postfrontal conditions will be more pleasant as a slightly cooler and drier airmass moves into the forecast area. Both Max and Min Ts will be climatologically near normal for this time period. 11/Calhoun & 87/Stigger && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 At the beginning of the long term period, what remains of what is now TS Helene and an upper closed low will continue to interact over the central to eastern CONUS. The models have yet to resolve the placement of both systems along with the timing of when the remnants will be absorbed into the cutoff low. That will play a role in what, if any, precip we see. From yesterday, some of the models have backed down on wrapping around more moisture this far south. However, even the wetter solutions do not depict moisture / rainfall amounts to write home about. As a result, PoPs were decreased over this period. The postfrontal temperatures seen at the end of the short term will carry on to and through most of the long term with only a 2-4 degree warm up expected for MaxTs. MinTs and dewpoints will see more of a bump right along the coast, however further inland will be pleasant as northerly to northwesterly winds prevail. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Main issue in the near term appears to be scattered convection across cntl LA which could impact KAEX next hour or two before weakening with loss of heating...carrying TEMPO to account for this activity. Elsewhere, just carrying VCSH in the near term for sporadic decaying convection. Thereafter, VFR should be the rule through the night although some patchy light fog is possible all terminals per latest guidance. An expected frontal passage will bring a wind shift and some thicker cloud cover with possibly a shower or two for Wednesday. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light with a general onshore component today. A few showers or thunderstorms have developed right over the coast and over the waters, along with a waterspout sited this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday as a cold front pushes slowly through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday. TS Helene is expected to become a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. Based on the current forecast track and intensity, offshore flow in the 20-30 knot range and increasing seas in the 6 to 10ft range are expected to develop Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle and moves inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 84 63 82 / 50 40 10 0 LCH 73 88 67 84 / 20 40 10 0 LFT 74 89 69 85 / 20 40 10 0 BPT 73 90 68 88 / 20 40 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...25