732
FXUS64 KLCH 251711
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1211 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An upper level ridge centered over Texas is expected to continue
have influence over the sensible weather for the forecast area
today. This will limit most convection, with just isolated to
widely scattered activity expected during max heating.

The lack of overall convection is expected to help air
temperatures to soar over the forecast area, away from the coast,
and into the mid to upper 90s. With light south winds allowing for
good low level moisture, dewpoints are expected to stay in the mid
70F range this afternoon. After running the apparent temperature
tool, the combination of the temperatures and humidity will bring
heat index readings to at or above 108F degrees for a majority of
the forecast area. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect
for all but lower southwest Louisiana and lower southeast Texas
from 11 am to 7 pm local.

Over the next couple of days on Wednesday into Thursday, the
upper level ridge will gradually shift to the west allowing for an
upper level trough to cut into the eastern portion of the ridge
bringing about a weakness aloft over the forecast area. This will
allow for an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially from late morning into early evening with daytime
heating. The increase in shower activity will look to help
somewhat keep the heat in check, with widespread afternoon max
heat index values below 108F degrees.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Low level southerly flow will persist during the period. This will
allow for good low level moisture and high humidity values. The
upper level ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the
region. However, the upper ridge looks to be more flat and weaker,
more of a "dirty" ridge. This will allow for daytime heating to
work with the available moisture to produce a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered VFR ceilings and light southerly flow will continue
through the period. A few isolated showers will be possible this
afternoon, mainly across Acadiana and possibly near AEX.
Convection will taper with sunset with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight.

17


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
this week. This will allow for mainly a light onshore flow to
continue to go along with mainly low seas.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be isolated at best
today as an upper level ridge continues to have an influence over
the region. This upper level ridge will gradually weaken over the
next couple of days and this will allow for an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity. Convective activity will be higher for
the offshore during the night time into early morning, and for the
nearshore from late morning into the early evening.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  95  75  93 /  10  30  30  40
LCH  78  92  78  92 /   0  40  20  50
LFT  77  94  78  93 /  10  50  30  60
BPT  78  94  77  94 /   0  30  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17