837
FXUS64 KLIX 252107
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
407 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

It was a hot oppressive day across the region or in other words,
a very warm humid June day. Temps were a little above normal once
again with highs typically in the mid 90s across most of the
region. Combine that with the humid gulf air over the region and
we saw heat indices climb into the 105 to 112 range again.
Convection was able to initiate in some locations earlier today
but overall there wasn`t a lot of activity out there even as a
strong outflow boundary moved northeast across the region until it
crossed I-12. This activity will continue to spread north and
northeast over the next few hours but should quickly subside as we
lose the daytime heating.

The next few days should see a shift from what we have seen the last
3-4 days. It will still be warm and very muggy but convection will
be much easier to come by and could be widespread at times.
Amplifying ridge over the 4 corners will lead to s/w currently at
the top of the ridge to start surging to the southeast across the
Plains and towards the Lower MS Valley by midday/afternoon tomorrow.
Timing of this is really key to how warm we get tomorrow and when
convection gets going. That said there are some indications that
this should spark off an MCS that very well could surge out well
ahead of this disturbance approaching the area by early afternoon or
even sooner. So in all honestly the best forecast will be watching
upstream tonight to see if and where that MCS develops and how fast
it starts to surge southeast and then south. Given how these type of
systems usually behave there is a good chance that it will be much
faster than what most models suggest as most tend to really surge
due to strong cold polling. That should help keep the very
oppressive conditions we have seen the last few days at bay.
However, it is only relative as it will still be very warm and
muggy.

That disturbance will quickly slow down and likely remain over the
area Thursday with remnant of it still impacting the region Friday
as our ridge to the west flattens out and starts to slide back to
the east. With the weakness aloft and the area between a ridge to
the northwest and one to the southeast we will be in the middle
and the area that has a decent shot of convection as we heat up.
This will help keep the temps in check even more with highs likely
only ranging from 90 to 94, possibly some upper 80s if rain
coverage is there along with persistent cloud cover. Friday temps
start to creep back up a little as the ridge begins to build but
decent rain coverage and clouds should keep the area in the lower
to mid 90s. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Heading into the weekend and next week it looks like the heat
will quickly return and with the moisture not going anywhere
conditions could quickly get oppressive once again. Medium range
models are in fair agreement with the pattern outside of some
minor details and timing but the sensible weather surprisingly the
differences are larger especially as we move into next week. NBM
doesn`t look too bad but given the pattern and inclined to lower
pops slightly over southwest MS early next week and could easily
see far less activity than what we currently have in the grids for
Sunday as well. That said the highs temps that are in the
forecast look good or could be a degree or two to cold and we are
already showing mid to upper 90s for most areas (even isolated
areas at 100 on Monday).

Heading into the weekend the ridge that is over the 4 corners right
now is expected to push back to the east Friday and by Saturday
could be centered over the Lower MS Valley and from there only build
across the south central and southeast CONUS through the weekend and
into next week. There are indications that the mid lvl ridge could
be as strong as 597/598dm and centered over the Lower MS Valley.
This is rather stout with models suggesting h5 temps around -3 to -
4C and that is very warm. Typically mid lvl temps of that magnitude
shut down all convection chances so not sure why some of the models
and the NBM are as bullish as they currently are next week. This
weekend as the ridge is still building in rain may still be possible
but a lot will depend on how fast and far east the ridge builds. If
it is faster and still not trying to build in from the west we could
see the daily rain chance that we will see tomorrow through Friday
quickly shut off. If it is slower and still centered off to the
northwest then rain chances will still be in the 40 to 50 possibly
higher range along the coast Saturday but by Sunday these should
begin to slack off quickly. As we head into next week not confident
enough to go all in on a dry forecast given how high some of the
guidance is but would not be surprised to see the PoPs for Monday
and Tuesday tank by 30 to 40% or more from what the NBM is currently
showing. This also suggest rather toasty temps this weekend and
likely the first full week of July. So from a very very early
standpoint prepare for what looks like a hot and very humid 4th of
July and prepare now with a lot of ice cream, water balloons, and
your favorite hydration of choice (we said hydration the other
variety of beverage will not do as great to hydrate you ;) wink
wink). /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

All terminals are currently in VFR status as any MVFR cigs earlier
has finally scattered out. Through the rest of the day VFR
conditions will continue unless convection impacts the terminal
which is highly possible at most terminals. MCB may have the best
chance of not seeing much in the way of impacts but elsewhere it
is very uncertain. Convection will be dictated by sea/lake breeze
and outflow boundary interactions.

Will continue to carry VCTS for most terminals, but confidence in
a particular terminal is not high. Obviously if convection
directly impacts any terminal it would most likely be IFR
visibilities and wind gusts around 30 knots. Any convection that
does develop should wind down near or shortly after 00z. Still
holding off on any vsby restrictions of lower cigs during the
early morning hours as this will be highly determined by if and
where any heavy rain falls today. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Overall things remain fairly quiet over the coastal waters. High
pressure at the sfc will remain centered off to the southeast the
next few days and then slide east towards the central/southern
Gulf. This will lead to light winds generally out of the southwest
and then west however given the weak pressure gradient winds
closer to the coast will dictated by diurnal fluctuations. Only
other thing to mention is the typical diurnal increase in winds
across the sounds east of the MS delta each night. Last thing is
convection, storms will be a little more likely the next 72 hours
and higher winds and seas are expected near thunderstorms along
with the possibility of waterspouts given the very rich moisture
in place. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  74  92  72 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  97  78  96  78 /  30  50  50  20
ASD  96  77  94  75 /  20  20  50  30
MSY  94  79  94  78 /  30  10  60  30
GPT  95  78  94  76 /  20  20  60  50
PQL  98  78  97  75 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB