914
FXUS64 KLIX 201947
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-We continue to monitor the western Caribbean and southern Gulf
 for tropical cyclone development during the middle to later part
 of next week.

-Some models are forecasting a robust tropical cyclone making
landfall on the gulf coast around the end of the month and these
model solutions are making the rounds on social media and other news
platforms.

-Keep in mind that model guidance will likely continue to vary widely
 between the different models and from run to run unless/until
 the system actually starts to develop. Because of this, we urge
 you to please not focus on any individual model forecasts as
 there is little to no confidence in any one solution at this
 time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

All is quiet for the short term period as upper level ridging
continue to build into the area from the west. This has kept
little to no convection from forming today, outside of a few
showers offshore. This will continue tomorrow with PoPs ~0% as the
ridge moves further overhead.

On the other side of things, the ridge continuing to build in
also helps temperatures rise just a bit. Adjusted tomorrow`s
MaxT`s using a blend of the 50th and 75th percentile to get them
closer to guidance. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be
in the low to mid 90s for all. HRL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

At the beginning of the extended period we will be under upper level
ridging anchored to our west.  As the week progresses the high
pressure stays in place but blends with the Bahama high.  The result
of this setup is dry, warm weather.  By mid-week, we see a trough
moving off the Rockies and as it moves eastward provides a path for
Gulf moisture to move into the area bringing PoPs up into
general/typical summertime ranges of 20-30% through the end of the
period. Temperatures will also drop slightly as the week
progresses.

/Schlotz/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

All terminals VFR this afternoon and likely remain that way
through the majority of the forecast period. Western areas may
see some light patchy fog in the early morning hours Saturday,
but this dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise light and variable
winds with no convection expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Winds hold calm through early tomorrow, then we will see a more
steady easterly flow setup around ~10-15kts. This will bring an
increase in seas, ~2-3ft, through the later part of the weekend
and into early next week. These conditions will stick around for
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  90  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  72  91  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL