Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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409 FXUS64 KLIX 192040 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 All is quiet for the short term as the upper level ridge tries to push east. While we do see some isolated showers out there, mainly along the MS Coast, a lack of any deep layer moisture will prevent anything further than a shower or two. PWs on this morning`s 12z sounding were ~1.60" showing that moisture continues to very gradually go down. Into tomorrow we will see much of the same as the ridge continues to try to push eastward further into our area. We likely see even less shower activity tomorrow afternoon than we saw today. Did adjust temperatures a tad, on par with the NBM50, to bring them up a touch closer to model guidance. The low to mid 90s are likely for the majority of the area tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper level ridging drapes across Texas and coming into Louisiana will drift eastward early next week as a trough deepens from the Great Lakes. There is uncertainty with specifics on the trough with guidance though. But for the most part weak sfc high will keep PoPs relatively low with the best chances at the end of the week around 20-30%ish. Temperatures remain near seasonable in the upper 80s/low 90s with lows in the low 70s. For the tropics, there is decent agreement on something forming in the Caribbean somewhere in the 7-10 day range, but since there`s no circulation for models to track on. The track will depend on a few things, but primarily where exactly the circulation forms and the aforementioned trough. Don`t get too caught up in specific runs or models as there will still be a lot of uncertainty at this point of the forecast. -BL && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 TAFs are VFR this afternoon and will remain that way through the forecast period. A nice CU field across the area, but light winds and no strong convection expected through the day. Don`t want to rule out an isolated shower, but this would likely not cause issue. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Light wind and calm seas will remain in place over the next couple days as high pressure remains centered over the waters. As this system drifts inland over the weekend, we will see a more established easterly flow around 10-15kts. This will bring seas up to 2-3ft later into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 74 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 91 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 72 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL