281
FXUS64 KLIX 191511
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1011 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Forecast on track for this afternoon, temperatures likely make it
to the mid 80s to low 90s. This morning on visible satellite you
could actually see some pockets of river fog, but this has since
dissipated. Vis satellite now shows a cu field starting mainly in
southern areas, but is likely to develop across northern areas
eventually similar to yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

PW values have lowered to 1.8" which is still enough moisture to
produce rain, but suppression down to 700mb is making for a strong
inversion with dry air above. This will help to keep any sh/ts
developing with exception of coastal locations of SELA where the PW
boundary will be located. But even those rain chances won`t be high.
There could be some patchy fog around each morning but this should
not be dense and won`t last long either. Little if any sh/ts
expected Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Conditions are still conducive for waterspouts today, but this
begins to change as we move into late Thu into the weekend. We will
have a few easterly waves that traverse the gulf late in the weekend
into next week and this will at least enhance rain chances during
that time frame. The large stacked high is beginning to move NE
and will eventually center itself over southern TX by the weekend.
The extended holds some very interesting features. The first is
what will grab headlines which will be the area in the NW
Caribbean that has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
over the next 7 days. The other is a very deep fast digging upper
trough into the country as this tropical cyclone is supposed to
start developing. This is what models are advertising to pick this
tropical system up bringing it north then NE. The upper trough
moves so fast that strong modifying is not able to take full
effect. IF this tropical system moves east of the area, it could
help bring this very dry cool air into the area. That is a big IF
at the moment. We will have to see how this works out but at some
point over the next month we should see the first true cold front
move into or through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Other than one or two sites getting MVFR conditions with vis this
morning, all terminals should remain VFR this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Winds become more stable and established from the east and rise to
around 10-15kt over the weekend. These conditions should be the rule
for the next several days along with a few sh/ts that may develop
over nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  94  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  92  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  90  75  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  90  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  93  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE