560
FXUS64 KLIX 201741
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

We continue to see additional drying across the area, shown in the
12z sounding this morning with a PW of 1.50". This keeps PoPs ~0%
for today, but can`t rule out an isolated shower offshore.
Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 90s this
afternoon for the majority of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

PW values of 1.6" and deep suppression will continue to make for low
precip chances across the area today and Saturday. The strong moist
sfc inversion will also make shallow fog again this morning which
should remain in and around river valleys. This should not cause
poor vis on major roadways but some secondary roads near these
rivers could be impacted. Radiation fog could form again Sat
morning and the same reasoning should be the case as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The large stacked high is now parked over TX and should remain there
for the weekend. This will help keep the area fairly dry over much
of the weekend. The upper trough off the west coast will eventually
start moving east causing this large high to flatten by Sunday into
the new work week. This troughing should help bring the next
chances for rain as it draws gulf moisture back into the gulf
coast. This should be the fcast from Tue through the remainder of
the week.

The next thing we will begin to look for is any changes to the very
extended portion of the fcast concerning tropical development. The
only thing that can be told at this moment is to keep up with the
latest fcast changes through the next 7 to 10 days. Models are
having an absolute melt down on how to handle the area that the
hurricane center has wrapped in 40% for development. Placement and
timing is literally all over the place with this and this will
likely continue until or if something evolves from the outlooked
area. Most guidance does point at the possibility of two areas of
low pressure developing and that the system is trying to convert
into more of a baroclinic system with time. And this may be why they
are struggling. We are no where even close to solving any details
with this as far out in time as we are but it will continue to be
closely watched.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

All terminals VFR this afternoon and likely remain that way
through the majority of the forecast period. Western areas may
see some light patchy fog in the early morning hours Saturday,
but this dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise light and variable
winds with no convection expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Winds become more stable and established from the east and rise to
around 10-15kt over the weekend. These conditions should be the rule
for the next several days along with a few sh/ts that may develop
over nearshore waters. The hurricane center has an area outlooked at
40% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the NW
Caribbean and SE gulf. Remain updated to future fcasts concerning
this area over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  73  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  90  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  72  90  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...TE