139
FXUS64 KLIX 151720
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnants of Francine are still slowly sagging southward but
continuing to weaken into an open trough. A mix of moist and dry air
is wrapping around this feature and will create a gradient of higher
POPs along the southern half of the CWA from Houma to Pascagoula
today and again on Monday. CAMs and global models are in quite good
agreement in the placement and timing of convection. Model soundings
shows weak shear but modest instability and PW`s near 2". Although
severe storms are not expected, a few strong ones are possible.
Then, based on the orientation of the broad surface low, training of
showers/storms could be a problem for the MS coast. This is
especially so closer to the MS/AL line. Pockets of 3 to 6" is likely
the ballpark highest expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remainder of the forecast should be a gradual transition back to
a drier pattern. Upper level ridge situated west of the CWA over TX
and the Central Plains will expand slightly east while broad
troughing over the southeastern CONUS moves farther east. This
should put the local area in a region of higher subsidence and thus
less to no rain chances. Temps might but slightly above normal but
not but by a degree or 2 as the ridge will still be west of the CWA
and not particularly strong.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A few showers may develop in the vicninity of MSY, HUM, NEW, and
GPT through the forecast period as a weak frontal boundary remains
stalled over the area. However, prevailing VFR conditions with
ceilings of 3500 to 4500 feet are expected at all of the terminals
through around 10z. After 10z, light boundary layer winds over
portions of the region will allow for another round of low stratus
and fog development to occur. Probabilities of fog development are
highest at MCB, and have included a period of IFR stratus and MVFR
visibilities at that terminal from 10z to 14z. Fog and low stratus
development cannot be ruled out at BTR, HDC, and ASD, but the
probabilities for development are too low to include in the
forecast package. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions expected this morning as low/mid
level clouds pass across the region. A low level inversion combined
with moderate moisture at the surface could support fog over the
next few hours. The reminder of the day should be generally SCT to
BKN clouds right at the MVFR/VFR line. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible today as well, with the highest
chances along a KGPT to KHUM line.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light winds and relaxed seas/waves expected through the entire
forecast period with surface ridge nearby. Although a brief period of
hazardous marine conditions are possible from a storm, generally
expect winds around 5 knots and seas/wave around a foot.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  82  68  84 /  30  70  10  30
BTR  72  89  71  89 /  10  40  10  30
ASD  71  86  70  86 /  20  50  30  40
MSY  73  86  73  85 /  20  50  20  40
GPT  72  83  70  84 /  20  70  40  50
PQL  72  86  70  88 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME