117
FXUS64 KLIX 232002
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Like the last several days near-term, really not much to talk about
in this portion of the forecast. An upper level ridge centered just
west of the Bay of Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast
across the Gulf States. This will maintain hot temps and little to
no rainfall. A weak disturbance passing across the northern
periphery of the ridge may allow a few isolated showers across the
CWA from now through Saturday night but impacts will be minimal at
best. Temperatures will creep up a couple more degrees Friday and
Saturday the upper ridge nearby strengthens and temporarily expands
farther northeast. A few locations could approach record highs this
weekend. At the moment, it doesn`t appear that dewpoints will be
high enough to support heat indicies at heat advisory criteria, but
most of the CWA will probably be in the 100-103 degree range.

MEFFER

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The hot temperatures continue through Monday with temperatures in
the low to mid 90s. Most locations will be just a little below
records with perhaps Slidell or New Orleans potentially
threatening the record (95 and 94 in 2012, respectively). It just
falls a bit short of heat advisory criteria due to lower humidity
values, but heat indices will still reach in the 100-104 range at
peak heating. A shortwave does and a surface frontal boundary
passes through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday which brings
some low chances of showers and storms. There will be a small
reprieve with more cloud cover helping dampen the high
temperatures slightly, as well as drier air filtering through the
area but temps will still be in the upper 80s/low 90s. -BL


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings were still in place across the area
with scattered CU field overhead. Decks were still lifting so most,
if not all, terminals should be VFR within the next hour or so.
Although an isolated shower or 2 will be possible this evening and
overnight, the probability is too low to have in the TAFs.  Cigs
will not be an issue outside of any showers that develop but tonight
could show some MVFR cigs moving in from the north mainly for BTR
and MCB.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Surface high pressure centered northeast of the local area will
slowly shift from just off the Carolinas to east of the Bahamas.
This change in positioning will keep onshore flow in place with a
gradual shift in wind direction from southeast to due south. The
pressure gradient will generally support wind speeds around 10 knots
with occasional periods of speeds closer to 15 knots through this
weekend. Global models suggest that a cold front will approach the
coastal waters from the north early next week. Fairly typical for
this time if year, it will be less likely for the boundary to pass
completely through the CWA, but more likely stall and washout as it
reaches the coast.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  90  70  92 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  75  94  76  95 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  74  92  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  77  92  77  93 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  72  90  74  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME