596
FXUS64 KLIX 101952
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
252 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Passage of the frontal boundary mostly into the northern Gulf has
occurred, although as of 2pm it is still draped across far south
coastal LA visible on radar as a few rain cells. Current surface
conditions are mostly sunny, north winds, temps in the low 80s in
southwest MS counties and upper 80s in the LA parishes and coastal
MS counties, and damp air with RH in the upper 40%s to upper
50%s.

As the period progresses, surface high pressure moves west to
east over us and in the upper levels the trough that generated the
prior frontal boundary moves east and we come under the influence
of an approaching gentle ridge. Winds will remain northerly
bringing slightly cooler/drier air (highs tomorrow a couple
degrees under today). Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny
through tomorrow evening when an approaching trough starts pulling
moisture into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday to end of period)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Boundary layer flow turns onshore again Sunday, with an attendant
return of moisture. Dew points will slowly increase from the lower
60s Sunday morning to around 70 south of Lake Pontchartrain by
Monday morning. While there is mid level ridging over the western
Gulf, the southern stream will be rather active with multiple
shortwaves moving over the upper ridge. As each surface low moves
through the Central Plains States into the Middle Mississippi River
Valley, an associated area of showers and thunderstorms will move
through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While there will be some
potential for rain on Sunday, the first impactful rain event will
likely take place Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. At least one
more round beyond that, and possibly two, for the end of next week.

Precipitable water values will start out around 1.4 inches on
Sunday, and increase into the 1.8 range by late Monday afternoon,
which is above the 90th percentile of climatology for mid-May.
Additional rounds of rain and storms around Thursday and Friday will
have similar or higher moisture levels in place to continue the
potential for heavy rainfall. With multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
possible, if not likely, there will be an increasing threat of
hydrologic issues by the end of the week. Widespread rain amounts in
excess of 4 inches, and possibly more, are not out of the question
during the work week next week. It is too early to focus on specific
amounts and locations, but need to acknowledge that there is a
threat for the area. There may also be some potential for severe
storms with one or more of these systems, dependent on moisture and
wind profiles.

NBM PoPs will be used as a starting point for precipitation timing,
with refinements likely in later forecast packages. The temperature
forecast, especially highs, will be dependent on the timing of the
precipitation events. The warmest days are likely to be
Tuesday/Wednesday, when the potential for considerable sunshine is
the greatest.  Highs those days could be around 90, with the
remaining days probably in the lower or middle 80s at best. RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

With the front passing down into the Gulf, there are a few
lingering low clouds/ceilings pushing KMSY to MVFR status. Other
locations are VFR and KMSY should be clearing in the next hours
also. VFR conditions expected to continue through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Behind the frontal passage north winds will increase to Small
Craft Advisory levels approaching 20kt, first in the inshore
lakes and MS sound and then into the outer waters through early
tomorrow morning. Winds will then ease through the day Saturday
and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin
to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts
to move north. Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong
winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move
over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong
disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  59  81  61 /  10   0  10   0
BTR  90  65  87  67 /  20  10   0  10
ASD  90  64  87  65 /  30   0   0   0
MSY  88  71  85  70 /  30   0   0  10
GPT  88  64  85  66 /  40   0   0   0
PQL  89  62  87  63 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ550-
     552-555-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ552-
     555-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS