794
FXUS64 KLIX 220243
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
943 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Seasonably dry air is in place tonight with precipitable water
values in the 1.2 to 1.4 range. No significant changes needed to
the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Tonight through Tuesday, conditions will be pretty dry overall,
looking at the models, as high pressure continues to build over the
area. An isolated shower or two will be possible during peak daytime
heating hours over the next few days, but generally, it will be dry
and warm. Highs are forecast in the mid 90s with heat index values
in the low 100s. While it won`t meet heat advisory criteria, be sure
to stay hydrated if you will be outside the next few days as it will
be a bit warmer than normal for this time of year. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

As we head toward mid-week, there is still a lot of
uncertainty in the models and confidence is lower than usual. But in
general, by Wednesday, there is the potential for a tropical system
to develop in the region by the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently, there
is a 60% chance for development in the next 7 days for this
disturbance. If it forms, it is expected to move into the Gulf
sometime late week. At the same time, a frontal system is expected
to move through the area late next week as this ridge moves eastward
out of our area. These two systems will be dependent on each other
and there are still numerous uncertainties surrounding the timing of
the front and how it relates to potential development of a tropical
system. It is far too soon to say any specifics or details about the
tropical system. And as for the front, expect increased rainfall
chances toward the end of the week, regardless. We will be
monitoring the potential for tropical development closely over the
next week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

General VFR conditions. Can`t rule out isolated patchy fog around
sunrise, but threat isn`t high enough to carry in the forecast
for any significant amount of time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Benign marine conditions expected through Thursday. Winds
will be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts) through
Thursday morning. Starting Thursday, winds increase to 15-25kts and
easterly to northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast
is still highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential
for tropical development. The hurricane center has an area
outlooked at 60% for tropical development over the next 7 days
over the NW Caribbean and southern gulf. Remain updated with
future forecasts concerning this area over the next several days.
MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  90  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...MSW