742
FXUS65 KLKN 152025
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
125 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A trough moving into the western U.S. will bring
several weather changes to Nevada through early next week. Breezy
conditions will wane through tonight with gustier winds across
the western half of Nevada late Sunday as a colder air mass
begins to settle into the area. High temperatures by Monday will
be in the mid 60s with some areas remaining in the 50s in northern
Elko county. Freezing temperatures are possible across portions
of northern Nevada beginning Sunday night and especially TUesday
night. a few light rain showers are expected across far northern
Nevada Monday with a few higher elevation snow showers but
significant precipitation is not expected. A warming trend begins
Tuesday, with high temperatures back up into the 90s by late next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.

High level cloud cover filtering into the state from the west
is signaling the next weather change for the state coming up for
Sunday through Monday. Breezy winds from the west and northwest
across the area will diminish tonight. An upper-level trough
digging deeper into the northwestern U.S. will continue to usher
in colder air into the the state tonight through Sunday night.
Lows tonight will drop into the 30s along the ID/NV border and 40s
farther south. Highs on Sunday will only rise into the 70s north
of US-50. Gusty west to northwest winds along and ahead of a
secondary cold front will develop late Sunday across portions of
northwestern and west-central Nevada. This will bring even colder
air into the area with lows Sunday night falling into the lower
30s across a good portion of northern Nevada north of I-80 and at
least lower 40s into central Nevada. Some blowing dust is expected
across portions of Humboldt County and Lander County Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday night

Breezy northwest winds in the wake of a cold front along with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s across northeastern Nevada will
make it feel quite cool for summer. Quiet weather will be in
store for the silver state as broad yet dry upper level trough
gives way to near zonal flow. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be
below normal temperature-wise as weakening NW flow aloft keeps a
cooler air mass over NV with light winds. By Wednesday upper level
flow shifts to more of a westerly flow as upper trough departs
eastward allowing for quicker moderation of local air mass to
solar heating. Thursday and Friday upper level flow shifts to be
out of the SW allowing for temperatures to rise a bit faster, as a
weak upper level trough approaches the west coast from the
Pacific. This trough looks to pass through dry, with little impact
to sensible weather other that a brief change in wind direction
for the weekend. Temperatures will begin the week on the cool side
in the upper 60s to upper 70s for Tuesday but will quickly
moderate back into the upper 80s to upper 90s by Saturday.
Overnight lows will also start cold in the upper 20s to mid 40s
Tuesday morning warming back into the low 50s to 60s Saturday
morning for most. Winds for the extended will be generally out of
the west with the occasional bend to the NW, with breezy winds
Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Wind speed do come
down a bit as the week progresses at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to
25 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Sunday. A dry cold front will be making its way across
Nevada this evening with Westerly winds shifting to WNW, along
this front will be elevated at speeds of 15KT to 25KT with a few
gusts up to 35KT possible. Along with the winds haze and localized
areas of blowing dust will be possible, briefly lowering
visibility at area terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northwest winds associated a diffuse cold
front will affect northern Nevada through the evening hours with
rising relative humidity through tonight as colder air filters
into northern Nevada. Temperatures will cool further Sunday with
highs mostly in the 70s across the area. Winds along and ahead of
another, stronger cold front will increase across the western half
of the state Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.
Probabilities for wind gusts at or above 30 mph highest (up to 70%
in higher elevations, 50% chance in valleys) across Humboldt,
Lander and northwestern Nye counties in the evening. Daytime
relative humidity will drop to critically low levels in many
valleys Sunday afternoon creating elevated fire weather conditions
for the late Sunday afternoon, early evening period. Diminishing
winds, plummeting temperatures with possible frost/freeze
conditions north of I-80 and rising relative humidity is expected
across northern Nevada Sunday night. Breezy northwest winds will
develop again on Monday but with much below normal temperatures
and higher humidity in place along with a few rain and high
elevation snow showers across northern Elko county with areas to
the south remaining dry. A more widespread frost/freeze event is
anticipated for Monday night into Tuesday morning with a warming
trend beginning Tuesday under a lighter wind regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Back to back cold fronts tonight and Sunday night
will drop temperatures considerably over the next 48 hours.
Below average temperatures with highs in the 70s are expected
Sunday, with even cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the
60s. Lows will drop well into the 40s tonight with 30s near the
ID/NV border. Colder temperatures, including freezing
temperatures in areas of remaining snow pack Monday night into
Tuesday morning will temporarily slow the melting process
resulting in noticeable decline in flow in the smaller watersheds.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to remain in
in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt at Comus is expected to gradually rise through early
next week but remain in action stage. Minor flood stage could be
reached by Monday night.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will stay in action
stage for the next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage again this evening.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93