228
FXUS65 KLKN 162043
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
143 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front will move through the state tonight
into Monday bringing much cooler temperatures area wide, gusty
winds, along with a few rain and high elevation snow showers to far
northern Nevada. Cold overnight lows tonight and especially Monday
night will present frost and freeze impacts to much of the area.
Well below normal temperatures Monday will begin to rebound Tuesday,
rising into late week to above normal levels back into the 90s. Dry
conditions are expected in the long term with no significant wind
events expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. A cold front entering
northwest Nevada this afternoon will move into east-central Nevada
by late Monday morning. Much colder air behind the front will drop
snow levels across northern Nevada to around 6500 feet. However, the
the bulk of precipitation associated with the cold front and trough
system will be found across far northern Nevada in the Jarbidge
Wilderness and mountain areas in northern Elko county. Even then,
not much is expected with chances for greater than 0.10" of
rain/liquid equivalent precipitation 15% or less. Otherwise, dry but
breezy conditions along and behind the front are expected farther
south. A steady northwest breeze will affect much of eastern Nevada
Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts near 30 mph
in many valleys, with decreasing winds Monday night.

Colder air will filter into far northern Nevada tonight resulting in
potential frost mainly along the NV/ID border. High temperatures
Monday will only reach into the 60s with some areas in northern Elko
county staying in the mid 50s, well below normal.
Monday night will be the coldest night in almost a month.
Probabilities of temperatures falling below 32F are increasing
across much of central and northern Nevada reaching 70% in some
valleys. This will result in impacts to sensitive plants and certain
crops Monday night. Various frost and freeze advisories and warnings
are now in place beginning tonight, with more areal coverage Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Cold post frontal air mass over the forecast area early Tuesday
morning will cause concern for widespread frost and freezing
temperatures. Frost advisories and freeze watches are currently
issued. Low temperatures early Tuesday morning look to be in the
mid 20s to mid 30s for most, and some of the typical cold spots in
the valleys may manage a reading or two in the low 20s.
Protection will be needed for sensitive plants across most of the
forecast area. Otherwise weather will be fair with daytime high
temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s.

Split flow regime resides over the western U.S. and Canada thru
the remainder of the week with southwesterly flow and raising
heights across the Great Basin. This brings a warming trend thru
the weekend. Overnight lows Tuesday night will be warmer and look
to reside mostly in the 30s with another morning of isolated frost
risk early Wednesday, mainly across the typical colder valleys
where upper 20s and low 30s are expected. By Sunday, daytime high
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Weather remains dry and generally benign with modest afternoon
breezes gusting around 20 mph and intermittent cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR will be the primary flight condition through
tonight and tomorrow. Winds ease tonight but will again be breezy
tomorrow afternoon with gusts 20KTS to 30KTS across the region.
Haze is also expected and localized areas of blowing dust are
again possible in the afternoon. Blowing dust may impact terminals
and lower visibility with brief MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong cold front moving through the state
through tonight will bring gusty northwest winds to northwestern and
west-central Nevada this evening. Rising relative humidity after
sunset will mitigate fire weather conditions somewhat. A few rain
and high elevation snow showers are expected across far northern
Nevada tonight into Monday morning. The cold front will move into
central Nevada by late Monday morning with gusty northwest winds
expected across a broad area of eastern Nevada.
Chances for wind gusts 30 mph and relative humidity above will be
highest across northern Nye county but fuels are still drying out
and are not critical for this event. Widespread frost is possible
beginning tonight across far northern Nevada, reaching into the
majority of central and northeastern Nevada Monday night where
temperatures in some valleys will fall into the upper 20s to low
30s. Warmer conditions with lighter winds are expected beginning
Tuesday, warming back up to above normal temperatures in the 90s
for most valleys by late this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures are expected thru Tuesday before
beginning to warm again thru the middle of next week and the
weekend. Cooler than average temperatures are expected, including
sub freezing temperatures in areas of remaining snow pack. This
will temporarily slow the melting process resulting in a
noticeable decline in flow on smaller flowages.

The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain is expected to continue
to recede, falling below action stage in the Tuesday timeframe.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to continue to rise early
this this week but remain in action stage. It is forecast to peak
near minor flood stage in the Monday night to Tuesday timeframe.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will continue to reside
in action stage for the next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to recede yet fluctuate in height and
discharge diurnally. Fluctuations are expected to peak near action
stage for the next day or two before flows ease further. That
said, swift flows will continue on the creek and caution is urged
if recreating or working near it.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday in
Humboldt County...Northern Elko County.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in Humboldt
County...Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County.

Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM Monday to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in
Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...South Central Elko County.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM Monday to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County... Southwest Elko
County...White Pine County.

&&

$$

93/92/92/93