Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
149 FXUS65 KLKN 240824 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 124 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with above normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week as high pressure continues to grip the region. A passing disturbance will bring increased southwest winds Wednesday but long term outlook remains dry with cooler temperatures coming in for next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night Ridging over the region will shift south and east as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest. However, the byproduct of broad southwest flow ahead of the trough will be warmer temperatures with highs today mainly in the lower 80s with upper 80s showing up in lower valleys Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s and some lower 50s. Increased gradient wind Wednesday in response to trough moving through Idaho will result in higher surface winds from the southwest Wednesday afternoon of 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday High Pressure will slowly shift East, yet it will remain the dominant player in Silver State weather through the Saturday. A strong early Fall subtropical ridge of high pressure will be centered over the four corners Thursday. This ridge will be flanked by a upper low to the east and a weak upper trough just of shore of California. This will form a quasi-Omega blocking pattern, that will be relatively short lived, only lasting through Saturday potentially, due to an active polar Jet near the Pacific NW. This setup will also place NV under SW flow which will keep the region in a warming trend with light to breezy winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be above normal as highs will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs and lows in the mid 40s to low 60s. Winds will be light to breezy in the afternoons running out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. After Saturday model agreement falls apart as the weak Omega block breaks down. The GFS shows a strong upper trough moving into the Pacific NW which will push a front through NV Sunday into Monday. While any moisture associated with this trough stays well to the north into Idaho, the front will bring a cooler air mas that will see highs drop into the upper 60s to upper 70s if it verifies. The ECMWF does not have this feature at all in recent runs. It does show strong jet stream energy in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame, however this flow is zonal, farther to the north, with a stronger upper ridge that hold firm for the SW US. Should this model verify it would keep NV under W to SW flow and keep temperatures above normal through next Tuesday. Adding to the uncertainty the CMC and the NBM also have diverging solutions with the CMC favoring the ECMWF and the NBM favoring the GFS. For now have favored the GFS and NBM with a cold front that will pass through NV Sunday, but have hedged the temperatures a bit only cooling highs into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Also winds Sunday will shift to be out of the NW, but remain light at speeds of 5 MPH to 10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH possible. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal forecast sites for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light under mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the week. Poor overnight recoveries of 20-30% are expected tonight across mid and upper-slope portions of central and northern Nevada as a strong inversion sets up. RH values during the day will be quite dry as well, below 10% in some valleys but winds will remain light today. Increased southwest winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday but gusts are expected to remain below 30 mph in most areas. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend along with warm temperatures with a cool down expected next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/98/98/93