Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
536 FXUS65 KLKN 150905 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 205 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will begin cooling today through the weekend. Dry conditions will persist for much of the area except for extreme northern Nevada, where a few light showers are possible Sunday night and Monday morning. Windy condtions are expected each of the next few afternoons. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. An area of clouds are moving through northern and central Nevada this morning. Beneath this area of clouds are the remnants of blowing dust from the west. Visibilities are slowly coming up this morning though some areas are seeing five miles or so. For today, a dry southwest flow will continue. Upper low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest states later today with upper high pressure centered just west of northern Mexico. Heights will continue to decrease with highs continuing a downward trend. Readings will be in the 70s and 80s in the north with 80s to near 90 degrees in central Nevada. Winds will be breezy to locally windy out of the west and northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Skies are expected to remain partly to mostly sunny with dry conditions. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the 40s and 50s. Some of the colder locales in northern Elko county will see readings in the mid 30s. For Sunday and Sunday night, the upper low will remain over Washington State with energy splitting off from the main low. The upper flow will remain mainly west and southwest and conditions are expected to be dry. Northwest winds will be breezy to locally windy over the region with speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Clear and quiet conditions will remain Sunday night with lows in the 40s with cooler conditions in the 30s across the far northern sections of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Monday, the upper level trough coming in from the northwest will bring much cooler temperatures for a brief relief from the heat. Along the northern border, small chances of less than 20% for isolated showers throughout the day. High temperatures expected to plummet below normal into the 50s-60s for northern Nevada and 60s-70s for southern Nevada. Overnight temperatures also expected to drop into the 30s, just slightly above freezing temperatures. Northwesterly breezy winds expected in the afternoon at 15-25 mph gusts 30 mph. Tuesday through Saturday, models are showing another low pressure system remaining over western Canada, which will level out the weather pattern, bringing in a near zonal flow over the western U.S. bringing in drier weather over the state until Friday where model confidence begins to lower as some models indicate the trough moving southward. Despite the near zonal flow, temperatures are expected to gradually heat back up over the period with Tuesday highs starting relatively cool in the 60s-70s, but reach back into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with Friday and Saturday highs expected to reach back into the 90s. Overnight lows also expected to increase each night starting in the 40s and rising back into the 60s by the weekend. Afternoon winds expected to increase each day at 10-15 mph from the south, otherwise, calm below 10 mph. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals. Westerly breezes will be present this afternoon with gusts 20KTS to 25KTS across the area. Winds ease thru the evening. Mid-level cumulus are also expected at northern terminals KWMC, KBAM and KEKO. Haze will continue to be present across the region although visibility will likely remain greater than 6SM at all TAF sites. Concern for blowing dust in the afternoon and evening with greater reductions in VIS possible at KWMC and KBAM. However there is not enough confidence to include BLDU and significant VIS reductions in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER...No active weather is expected through the weekend, though, gusty westerly winds are expected each afternoon, with locally higher wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph. RH percentages will generally range between 8-20% with the strongest winds north of US-50, and lowest RH`s south of US-50. Temperatures will cool to the 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Below average temperatures are expected to begin next week. && .HYDROLOGY...This afternoon will be the last of the above average temperature days. These above average temperatures will result in increased melting from the remaining snow-pack at high elevations. A series of troughs will move through Nevada dropping temperatures to average levels for the weekend (upper 70s low 80s), before dropping them further below average (upper 60s) by Monday and Tuesday. This is expected to temporarily slow the melting process. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to remain in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt at Comus is expected to rise into action stage this afternoon, and potentially into minor flood stage by the start of next week. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/99/99