258
FXUS65 KLKN 222027
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
127 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and above normal highs in the 90s will continue
through midweek. By Wednesday some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over eastern Nevada.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday Night.

Seasonably above normal temperatures will continue across the
state this afternoon and through the weekend. As a sub-tropical
high to the southeast and a trough to the north, keeps the state
dry. Late morning temperatures have already risen into the mid to
upper 80s, and is forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s this
afternoon. Similar condtions are expected Sunday as well, with the
forecasted high within a degree or two of record highs at Elko
and Eureka. Nighttime lows will cool into the upper 50s tonight
and Sunday night. Breezy afternoon winds are expected with
southwest winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph this afternoon,
with stronger westerly winds 15-20, gusting to 25 mph Sunday
afternoon.


.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Based upon the HREF and then later periods of the WPC cluster
analysis, Nevada remain between two major upper level features as
the first week of Summer begins. The first main feature is a
strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander
between New Mexico and Arizona, which will bring above normal
temperatures to the region through Wednesday. The second main
feature is the upper level trough over SW BC and Pacific NW,
shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will help lower
the height a couple of 10`s of decameters and push a weak cold
front into northern Nevada later in the week on Thursday thus
lowering max temp a few degrees, however remaining above normal.
Between the trough to the north and the subtropical high to the
southeast over Arizona/New Mexico, some monsoonal moisture per NBM
is forecast to work into the area late Wednesday into Thursday and
then begin to diminish with lowering PW`s Friday into Saturday. The
best chances for high high based thunder and dry thunder is
forecast for late on Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon and
evening. Noticeably breezy westerly wind conditions with 15 to 25
mph winds and gusts from 20 to 30 mph are forecast across most of
northern, northeast, and east central Nevada on Thursday as the
trough works it way across the region. By Friday the trough moves
east and pushes the mid level moisture out of the area again
leaving quiet conditions for Saturday. Temperatures will begin the
week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees
above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across northern Nevada
with the passage of the front Thursday/Friday into the upper 70s
to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs
remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Highs across the north will
recover quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as
the upper ridge builds westward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all
terminals over the next 24 hours. West - Southwest wind gust from
15-20 kts late afternoon and evening then 15-25 kts Sunday
afternoon mainly over northern Elko county and Humboldt county.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions are expected across the
entire region, with highs generally in the 90s. Afternoon winds
this weekend will mainly be in the 7-17mph range with gusts up to
25 mph. Slightly higher winds are expected over northern Humboldt
county Sunday afternoon, with some of the higher terrain in zones
437 and 438 possibly seeing gusts reaching up into low 30mph
range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trending warmer, with well above normal
temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area
streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected over the
next few days, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the
snowpack is greatly diminished.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring
snowmelt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

91/85/85/91