700
FXUS63 KLMK 160458
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1258 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry and warm conditions expected across the region Monday.

*  Chances for rain (<30%) possible around midweek for areas along
   and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next
   weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Quiet night with high pressure, clearing skies, and light easterly
winds. These conditions will continue through the overnight hours.
Low temperatures in the morning will be in the upper 50s and low
60s. By mid-late morning, ample mixing up to about 750mb will allow
for dry air and gusty winds to mix down to the surface. Relative
humidity in the afternoon may get down to around 20-30% and winds
gusting up to 25mph. This update reflects these dry air mix down
variables, and the rest of the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mostly sunny skies are across the region this afternoon, with just
some diurnal cu popping up as sfc temps climb in the 80s. Cloud
cover is a bit more abundant across our south, which is in closer
proximity to the lingering tropical moisture belt still across the
Deep South. Most cloud cover will dissipate as we lose the sun angle
and sfc heating, though some cloud cover may continue later into the
evening hours along and west of the I-165 corridor. To the east,
mostly clear skies expected tonight. Temperatures will cool into the
upper 50s and near 60 overnight.

For tomorrow, sfc high pressure will be centered over the northeast,
with a tropical low meandering inland across the Carolinas. The
better moisture plume will remain well east, and we will have
another dry day in our neck of the woods. Temperatures will be
similar to today, with afternoon highs in the 80s. Later in the day,
high level clouds associated with the Carolina low may begin to
stream far enough west and into our Bluegrass, resulting in an
uptick in cloud cover mention at the end of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A potential tropical wave/system that could develop near the
Carolinas will begin to wobble northwestward toward our region early
next week. Models still vary on the overall spatial and temporal
details of this system, but it appears eastern portions of our
region (particularly I-75 points eastward) could see some beneficial
rainfall (albeit most likely light) as early as Tuesday. The current
suite of NBM and GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble statistics peg areas along
and east of the I-75 corridor in our CWA at about a 30-40% chance of
seeing measurable rainfall (greater or equal to 0.01"), while
chances drop significantly with westward extent away from the
tropical moisture source. The wave/system could wobble near the
Appalachians into eastern Ohio Valley through midweek before
gradually shifting eastward toward the end of the week. Increased
cloud cover associated with this system will likely have an impact
on temperatures, so we could see a bit of a gradient in highs temps
Tuesday and Wednesday across our western and eastern zones (i.e.,
mid/upper 80s west of I-65, upper 70s to low 80s east of I-65).

Skies should clear out in the wake of the tropical system/wave for
the end of the week and temps will turn quite toasty for late
September climo norms as upper ridging begins to amplify across the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

High pressure to the north of the region will continue to provide
mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for much of the forecast
period.  Winds overnight will remain light from the east.  During the
daytime hours, look for winds to increase a bit as we get some good
mixing.  Wind gusts this afternoon at KSDF may reach 14-18kts while
KLEX may see gusts of 18-22kts.  We expect winds to diminish b early
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SRM
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION.....MJ