660
FXUS63 KLMK 160527
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
127 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty
    showers and storms possible Sunday into early next week, with
    mostly dry conditions likely from mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Tranquil weather will continue tonight with high pressure in control
at the surface and ridging aloft. With light winds and mostly clear
skies temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 50s in
sheltered cool spots, 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Quiet and dry weather continues this afternoon as high pressure over
the Great Lakes region gradually slides eastward into the
northeastern U.S. Temperatures have warmed up quite a bit from
morning lows though there is a bit of a T/Td gradient across the
region. Where the low level moisture is a bit higher, we`ve seen a
cu-field develop, though strong capping will keep vertical growth in
the cumulus field to a minimum.

Skies will clear out overnight as the sun begins to set and we
should stay clear into tomorrow morning. Surface flow will take on a
more southerly component during the day tomorrow which will help
advect in warmer temps and higher dewpoints. Peak heat indices
during the afternoon tomorrow will likely range from 97 to 103, with
the highest values across our southwestern CWA and larger urban
areas. We`ll likely stay just short of heat advisory criteria
(heat index of 105), so no headlines planned at this time.

The capping inversion tomorrow will be a bit weaker compared to
today, particularly toward southern KY where increased low level
moisture will erode much of the cap, so showers and storms remain a
possibility during the afternoon hours. Overall activity will be
scattered given weak/subtle lifting mechanisms at the surface.
Organized severe weather is not anticipated with storms tomorrow,
but higher DCAPEs (~1,000 J/KG) could support gusty winds in wet
microbursts. Heavy rainfall will also be likely in showers/storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Above normal temperatures and muggy conditions are anticipated next
week as a very anomalous dome of warm air associated with a strong
upper level ridge remains anchored to much of the eastern CONUS.
Afternoon highs Monday into Friday of next week will likely range
from low to mid 90s, with a few locations (particularly bigger urban
areas) nearing upper 90s on a couple of days toward the end of the
week. The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in
peak heat indices ranging from the low 90s to upper 90s during the
week. The LMK CWA heat advisory criteria starts at 105 degree heat
indices, which looks like we`ll fall short of based on the latest
blend of data. For prolonged heat events (typically 4 consecutive
days or more) that could have impacts, this criteria can be lowered,
though there is some doubt we will have a long stretch of
consecutive days with impactful heat indices (i.e., Tuesday and
Wednesday may only see peak heat indices in low/mid 90s) to warrant
heat headlines at this point in time. This will continue to be
monitored in subsequent forecast updates.

During the upcoming week, there could be a couple of chances for
showers/storms to provide some temporary relief from the heat. A
plume of moisture and unstable air may filter into the region Monday
and result in scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. The axis of moisture/instability looks to shifts
westward on Tuesday as the upper ridge becomes more elongated and
oriented from the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic. This will
unfortunately limit any sort of rainfall potential over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky from mid to late week as strong
subsidence aloft and capping in the low/mid levels suppresses
convective efforts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The forecast remains unchanged. VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast period. Today, high pressure will move towards
and eventually off the East Coast. This will cause winds over the
Lower Ohio Valley to veer from the east towards the south throughout
the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...KDW