427
FXUS63 KLMK 170127
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Chances for rain (<40%) possible Tuesday and Wednesday for
   areas along and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm
   through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

No significant updates this evening. Skies are mainly clear, winds
are light, and temperatures are in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most
areas. Cirrus is now spreading west over the I-75 corridor, and high
clouds will continue to increase from east to west overnight. We`ll
stay mainly dry overnight and through much of Tuesday morning, with
just a few showers possible near and east of I-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Clouds and moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
will steadily advance into the region tonight and tomorrow. Most of
the overnight hours are shaping up to be dry, but mid/high level
clouds moving in could limit cooling slightly, particularly in our
eastern zones. Scattered rain showers could start as early as dawn
tomorrow morning near the I-75 corridor as a band/wave of moisture
pushes into the region. Models vary on the coverage and westward
extend of precipitation bands, but most generally have them
weakening and/or `drying` up as they near the I-65 corridor. For
now, have 30-40% chance PoPs across our I-75 counties, with chances
quickly dropping off with westward extent. Overall QPF is fairly low
with these showers (<0.25" for the day), so this won`t be a `drought
buster` by any means.

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be impacted by the clouds, as
our far eastern counties will struggle to get to near 80 degrees.
Think cloud cover will be thin enough west of I-65 that we`ll see
highs well into the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The tropical depression off the Carolina coastline is forecast to
continue inland progression toward the eastern Kentucky mountains
Tuesday night, which will bring an increasing amount of clouds and
slight chances for light rain along and east of the I-75 corridor.
As the low moves closer to Kentucky, cyclonic wind flow will bring
north to northwesterly winds across the region and bring "cooler"
high temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80 on a line
from Tompkinsville to Danville to Lexington and eastward, while
other locations to the west of this line will see high temperatures
in the mid 80s.

For Thursday and beyond, an upper level ridge of high pressure
builds across the region to bring a warm up and dry conditions.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are about 6-10 degrees above
normal for mid to late September. Dew point temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s will have heat indices feeling cooler than
temperature readings, likely "feeling" like in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Continued VFR conditions likely. High clouds will gradually spread
in from the east tonight ahead of low pressure over the Carolinas.
Mid-level ceilings will then gradually lower throughout Tuesday,
with scattered rain chances increasing along the I-75 corridor by
mid to late morning. Scattered light rain chances will then linger
near LEX and RGA through the end of this TAF period. Northeasterly
winds will increase to 5-10 kts on Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...EBW