649
FXUS63 KLMK 181905
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  One or two showers are possible this evening, with lingering
   moisture contributing to the development of fog Thursday morning.

*  Mainly dry and hot weather tomorrow through Sunday with highs
   each day around 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

This afternoon, the remnant mid-level low from the tropical system
earlier this week is centered over the upstate of South Carolina.
Greater sfc-700 mb moisture in the vicinity of this mid-level low
has allowed for the development of a broken stratocumulus cloud
layer this afternoon, with the thickest cloud cover currently being
observed south and east of a line extending from Munfordville to
Mount Sterling. With a fairly deep layer of near saturation present,
an isolated rain shower will be possible this afternoon into the
early evening hours, particularly along and east of US 127. At this
hour, temperatures range from the mid-70s to the mid-80s depending
on cloud cover, and it`s expected that we`ll add another few degrees
area-wide for highs this afternoon.

This evening into tonight, the mid-level low is expected to pivot to
the east, allowing drier air in the mid-troposphere to be drawn into
the area from the north. Once we lose daytime heating, much of the
stratocu field is expected to dissipate, and clearing skies are
expected into the overnight hours. With boundary layer mixing this
afternoon limited by the extra cloud cover, ample near-sfc moisture
will remain over much of the area into Thursday morning. With a weak
pressure gradient keeping winds calm or light/variable overnight,
conditions will be favorable for fog across the area early Thursday
morning. One uncertain factor is whether or not a few low-mid clouds
will linger overnight, potentially limiting sfc decoupling. Given
the signal, will go ahead and advertise patchy and/or areas of fog
in this forecast.

On Thursday, any lingering fog should burn off quickly after sunrise
as sunshine allows drier air aloft to mix down to the surface.
Increasing heights and thicknesses aloft will promote a continued
warming trend, and drier mid-level air should also lead to less
diurnally-enhanced cloud cover tomorrow in the late morning and
afternoon hours, though extra clouds will still be expected in
eastern and southeastern portions of the FA. Light north winds and
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s are
expected on Thursday, starting a stretch of multiple unseasonably
warm and dry days in a row.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Upper ridge axis holds over our area to end the work week, keeping
us dry and above normal for high temps. Plenty of sunshine and H85
temps nearing 20C will allow for highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Quite a bit of spread among MAV/MET guidance, however like
something close to the NBM which pretty much splits the difference.
Lows should mostly be in the low and mid 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

By early Saturday morning, a weak frontal boundary trailing from a
northern Manitoba surface low will work into our area, and likely
stall through the weekend. This feature is expected to be very weak
and lacking in overall deep moisture. As a result, don`t expect a
whole lot out of it other than some increased mid to upper sky
cover. There are some models that are hinting at a few very isolated
showers over the northern half of the CWA. Not sure coverage would
be enough to justify a 20% mention at this time, and anticipate a
bit of a drying trend in the data by then given how the moisture
profile looks on soundings/time heights. Warm temperatures in the
upper 80s and low 90s continue through the weekend.

Monday - Wednesday...

A much stronger area of low pressure wobbles over southern Canada
with mid level troughing overspreading the central CONUS into the
Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley region by early next week. This will
drag another and stronger cold front into our region, bringing
chances for showers and a few storms through mid week. Overall,
temperatures should be cooler during this stretch, falling back into
the 80s for highs, and even upper 70s and low 80s by the Wednesday.

Looking beyond the current forecast window, a potential tropical
system coming out of the Gulf may need to be monitored if it
develops, and depending on its eventual track. The aforementioned
upper trough (prevailing westerlies) would ultimately play a role in
whether that potential tropical system decides to take a more
easterly route.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A broken stratocu deck is present across the area this afternoon as
left over tropical moisture lingers over the region. These low
clouds should gradually dissipate later this evening, although a SCT
4-5 kft cloud layer may hold on for an extra few hours at LEX and
RGA. Light N/NE winds are expected until around sunset this evening,
with winds going light and variable for the overnight hours. There
is a fairly strong signal for fog early tomorrow morning, especially
at BWG and RGA. The main uncertainty is whether or not the low-mid
cloud layer hangs around overnight, which would reduce fog
potential. Any fog which does form should dissipate by 13-14Z
Thursday, with VFR conditions and light north winds expected through
the end of the current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CSG