873
FXUS63 KLMK 151044
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry and warm conditions expected across the region today.

*  Chances for rain (<30%) possible around midweek for areas along
   and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Early morning satellite imagery reveals clear to partly cloudy skies
across the region.  Much of the cloudiness is over far western KY
along the eastern periphery of the remnant circulation of Francine
which continues to spin down.  Temperatures have a little bit of a
ridge-valley split this morning with the cooler valleys/radiational
cooling spots down in the lower 60s with the ridges remaining in the
upper 60s.  For the remainder of the overnight hours, no significant
weather is expected and temps will bottom out in the upper 50s to
around 60 in the valleys with the ridges remaining in the mid 60s.

For today, a continued Rex block pattern will remain in place across
the region.  The upper ridge to our north/northeast will build
southward and push the remnants of Francine more to the west and
southwest which will result in a drier day across the region. Highs
today will warm into the mid-upper 80s with a few spots hitting 90.

For tonight, with building high pressure into the region, mostly
clear skies are expected with lows dropping back into the upper 50s
to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The long term forecast continues to feature unusual upper-level
blocking patterns for our region through most of next week. The Rex
Block that has been in place for most of the weekend shifts slightly
eastward for the start of the week. This will feature an upper ridge
centered over the Great Lakes and New England as the upper low that
was once associated with Francine over the southern US. With the
ridging aloft and sfc high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
and the northeast building back into the Ohio Valley, we look to
start the week warm and dry. The forecast and overall pattern turns
more complicated with the development of a second warm core tropical
system off the SC coast. Deterministic models continue to struggle
with the spatial and temporal aspects with this warm core system but
also the overall strength. GFS seems to be quicker but also weaker
bringing this system into eastern KY and WV Monday night into
Tuesday while the EURO has this system not working into the Ohio
Valley until late Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing and location will
determine if locations within our CWA, mainly along and east of the
I-75 corridor, see any rain out of this system. Overall confidence
remains low given the large discrepancies in the handling of this
next potential tropical system.

By the end of the week, a second weaker Rex Block pattern looks
to setup across the eastern third of the US with the upper-low
over NC/VA and weaker upper ridging over southern Ontario. This
will shift eastward as ridging from Texas will help to
strengthen the Rex Block by the weekend.

Outside of the low end rain chances Tuesday into Thursday (10 to 20
percent) across the far eastern CWA, the overall forecast looks dry.
Temperatures also look to remain warm compared to mid September
normals with highs in the mid to even upper 80s through the week and
lows upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period.  High
pressure centered to the north of the region will provide the area
with mostly sunny conditions today.  Winds will generally be out of
the east throughout the day.  Winds may gust into the 15-19kt range
this afternoon especially at KLEX/KSDF/KRGA, but these winds are
expected to subside by early evening.  The outlook for tonight and
Monday calls for continued VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BTN
AVIATION.....MJ