636
FXUS63 KLOT 150700
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and summer-like warmth will persist through
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

No changes to the current dry and warm forecast. Today and
Monday will likely be the warmest days of the next week with
high temps reaching the upper 80s with some locations reaching
90. As a tropical system moves into the mid Atlantic region by
mid-week, and possibly as far west as Ohio, the thermal gradient
will cool slightly, likely leading to high temps back in the
lower/mid 80s for the rest of the week. Any cloud cover from
this system could also keep temps a few degrees cooler.
Continued persistent easterly flow is expected through next
weekend, which will keep temps cooler near Lake Michigan.

The blended guidance continues to spread slight chance pops into
the area by Saturday night and into next Sunday. This still
looks too fast as the entire pattern is likely to slow down
with the system in the mid Atlantic. Looking at the run total
QPF from the 00z ECMWF and Canadian, shows virtually no rainfall
in the next 240 hours across the cwa. Have maintained these low
pops for now, but this time period will likely end up being dry
which will lead to worsening drought conditions over the next 10
days. cms

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

There are no aviation concerns through the TAF period. Southeast
to east winds will prevail with speeds generally aob 10kt. A
lake breeze will turn winds northeasterly at GYY for a period
this afternoon. Occasional periods of SCT to BKN VFR cigs will
occur, as well.

Borchardt

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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