841
FXUS66 KLOX 241027
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
327 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/523 PM.

Low clouds and fog will affect coastal areas through the week
with near normal temperatures. Dense fog is likely near the coast
through at least Tuesday. Inland temperatures will remain above
normal through the week, warmest through Tuesday. Otherwise,
quiet weather is expected through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/307 AM.

The calendar may say late September but the weather is saying late
June. Night through morning low clouds will persist through the
short term. Temps will remain below normal across the csts/vlys
but will be above normal inland (away from the marine layer).
Winds will be on the light side.

An unexpected eddy spun up just before midnight and has lifted the
marine layer a few hundred feet enough to bring plenty of low
clouds to the vlys and also to eliminate most of the dense fog.
The deeper marine air intrusion will also bring noticeable
cooling to the vlys. Low clouds will hug the coast and many
beaches will remain cloudy all day.

Not much change in the cloud pattern for Wed and Thu skies will
be clear save for the night through morning low clouds which will
extend into the vlys. Hgts will fall through the two day period
as a long wave trof develops in the east pac and moves closer to
the coast. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Wed and 1 to 2
degrees on Thu. Max temps will take on an early July like
distribution with the interior sections running 4 to 8 degrees
above normal and the csts and vlys (swaddled in marine air) will
end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/327 AM.

The benign weather will continue late this week and into the
weekend. Hgts rise a few dam on Friday as a weak upper high pushes
into the state from the east. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming
across the board.

A cooling trend will develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday
as troffing spreads over the state and onshore flow increases. The
night through morning low clouds will penetrate a little deeper
into the vlys and will persist a little longer at the beaches.
There will be stronger afternoon west winds across the mtns and
the Antelope Vly. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Saturday
and 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. The csts/vlys will end up 4 to 8
degrees below normal while the interior will remain 3 to 6 degrees
above normal.

Not the best confidence in the forecast for early next week but
the most likely scenario is for high pressure to move closer to
the state from the east and kicking off a slow warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0558Z.

At 0450Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2200 ft with a temperature of 31 deg C.

High confidence in desert and KPRB TAFs.

Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs LIFR conds are likely
through 15Z-16Z. Intermittent 1/4SM vsbys are likely at most
sites. VFR conds may arrive +/- an hour from fcst time. There is
a 20 percent chc of a few more hours of VFR conds in the afternoon
than forecast and a 30 percent chc that there will be no clearing
(except for KCMA and KLGB where there is good confidence in VFR
conds in the afternoon).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. TAF VIS will reflect sfc vis
not tall tower vis. Intermittent vis of 1/4SM is likely (60
percent) through 15Z. There is a 30 percent chc of no clearing and
a 20 percent chc of SCT conds lasting to 23Z. High confidence in
no significant easterly wind component.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
1/4SM FG conds through 15Z. Good confidence that SCT-SKC conds
will arrive by 1630Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/813 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast through early Thursday,
then moderate confidence thereafter. Winds and seas will remain
below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday,
except for a low-to-moderate (20-30 percent) chance of local SCA
level W-NW wind gusts in the vicinity Point Conception, near Point
Dume and into the San Pedro Channel each afternoon and evening
through Wednesday. There is a moderate (40-50 percent) chance of
SCA level winds Thursday afternoon through Friday for the waters
beyond 10 NM offshore along the Central Coast southeast to San
Nicolas Island. Additionally, there is a 30 percent chance of SCA
level seas across the outer waters building over the weekend,
especially over the northern outer waters where models indicate
seas building to around 10 feet Saturday night into Sunday.

A shallow marine layer over the coastal waters is expected to
bring areas of dense fog to the coastal waters tonight into
Tuesday morning, with at least patchy dense fog possible again
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A marine weather
statement is currently in effect through noon Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall/Lund/Smith
SYNOPSIS...Kittell/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox