116
FXUS66 KLOX 081032
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
332 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...08/326 AM.

Daytime highs will cool each day through the weekend, and will be
well below normal for most locations. Marine layer clouds will
extend very far inland each night and morning, with drizzle
possible across coast and valleys into next week. Temperates will
warm Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...08/331 AM.

Only slight changes in the weather pattern through Monday. This
weekend an upper level trough will drop down over the region, and
by Monday is likely to break off into a cutoff low, around 300 NM
South of Point Conception. Onshore gradients are expected to be
strong each day, but trend slightly downward. Marine layer clouds
extending across the coasts, valleys, and into the foothills, will
remain standard each evening through morning. Clearing will
improve slightly each day as onshore gradients slowly decrease.

Upper level heights are likely to fall through the weekend,
reaching a minimum (~582dam) on Sunday. Temperatures away from
the coasts will be most impacted by the cooling airmass aloft, and
will trend downward each day this weekend. Even so, daytime highs
will be relatively similar for both today and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well below normal (by 5 to 10 degrees) for
most locations, except near normal for interior areas/deserts.
Expect temperatures in the mid 60s to the low 70s for the coasts,
mid to upper 70s for valleys, and upper 80s to low 90s for
deserts. Monday heights will begin rising as the low stalls south
of the region. Temperatures will warm by 2 to 5 degrees, to within
around 5 degrees of normal.

Overnight-to-morning drizzle will be possible each day, due to
falling upper level heights which will allow the marine layer to
expand upward. Measurable rain up to a few hundredths of an inch
may be recorded at some gauges esp near foothills.

Even with onshore gradients trending downwards, they are still
forecasted to be strong (LAX to DAG between 7 and 10). Thus gusty
southwesterly winds will continue for the Antelope Valley and
foothills. Winds are expect to decrease somewhat each day and
widespread advisory level gusts are unlikely.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/236 AM.

Latest model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF and their respective
ensembles continue to agree for the overall synoptic pattern next
week. Very minimal changes to the weather pattern in the extended
period. Onshore gradients are forecasted to be very strong, thus
marine layer clouds will dominate the weather pattern for the
coasts and valleys, and gusty southwesterly winds will persist
across the interior.

Tuesday and Wednesday the aforementioned cutoff low is expected
to stall around 400 NM South of Point Conception. Thursday through
Friday the low will gradually drift eastward, crossing over Los
Angeles (or Orange) County Thursday evening. During the day
Thursday, the upper low may disturb the capping inversion above
the marine layer, resulting in the scattering out of marine layer
clouds regionwide. The more likely scenario however, is that the
low will simply continue to lift the marine layer, causing
overnight- to- morning drizzle, which will be possible through the
entire extended forecast period. Besides drizzle, no
precipitation is expected, as the low pressure system lacks
significant moisture. However precipitable water has trended
slightly upward with the latest model runs, so rain chances will
continue to be monitored. The greatest vorticity from the system
will pass over the area at night, when the atmosphere is the most
stable, hindering any convective potential.

Friday onshore gradients may start to trend downward, which
indicates the potential for the dominant flow direction at the
surface to become more northerly, and closer to offshore, going
forward. This would dampen the influence of marine layer clouds
and afternoon seabreezes, thus warming temperatures for all areas
(including the beaches). At this time, conditions on Friday are
still expected to be similar to the rest of the week. Any major
change in the weather pattern (and a break from June Gloom),
looks to be more probable beyond the forecast period, potentially
starting next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0646Z.

At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5400 ft with a temperature of 23 degrees C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAF sites. Timing of
flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
CIG fcsts may be off by +/-200ft. Brief VFR conditions after 22Z
are possible for coastal TAF sites from KSBA southward.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30
percent chc of SCT conds 23Z-02Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30 percent chc
that cigs will not go below OVC006. There is a 20 percent chc of
VFR conds arriving at 18Z and a 30 percent chc at 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...08/243 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels today. From this evening through
Monday morning, there is a 60% chance of SCA level winds most
likely on Sunday and Sunday night. From Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. SCA level winds may return by Friday.
extending across the coasts, valleys, and into the foothills, will

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. For Monday through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/ASR
SYNOPSIS...RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox