270
FXUS66 KLOX 260301
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
801 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/727 PM.

A gradual cooling trend will continue through midweek as high
pressure weakens over the area and onshore flow strengthens. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will slowly return to the
coastal areas. Temperatures will likely rebound late this coming weekend
into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/752 PM.

***UPDATE***

Very warm conditions are lingering over the far interior areas
this evening, including the Antelope Valley and the San Luis
Obispo County inland valleys. Temperatures as of 700 PM were still
in the mid 80s to low 90s, except to 95 degrees in the Carrizo
Plain. The Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory for the
interior section will be allowed to expire at 800 PM, however some
locations will remain uncomfortably warm through late this
evening. Overnight lows will be relatively high as well, with the
interior valleys and foothills likely not dipping below the upper
70s.

Closer to the coast, lows south of Point Conception will be in
the 60s, with minimal marine layer cloud cover expected. However,
along the Central Coast there is somewhat more confidence in a
shallow marine layer forming, with some low clouds and patchy
dense fog near the coast during the overnight to morning hours.

Increasing southwest to west winds are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening under fairly strong onshore flow. At the
same time, the typical gusty northwest winds will affect passes
and canyons in southwest Santa Barbara County, and through the
Interstate 5 Corridor.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak ridging aloft will be replaced by weak troughing by Friday
with a gradual return to night to morning low clouds and fog that
will venture further inland each day save for possible the Santa
Barbara South Coast due to an increase in Sundowner Activity
beginning Wednesday evening. Breezy northwest to onshore winds are
expected during this time and may approach advisory levels for
areas prone to northwest to onshore winds such as southwest Santa
Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor into the
western Antelope Valley and foothills. Increased marine layer
presence and earlier and stronger onshore flow will settle daytime
highs Thursday and Friday closer to normals with 70s common near
the coast, 80s to near 90 for coastal valleys and higher terrain,
and 90s further inland.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/117 PM.

We have moderate confidence in the extended period with a warm up
as early as the weekend but more likely (70-80 percent chance)
into early next week due to a building ridge. Low to moderate
heat impacts may return by Sunday with a 30-40 percent chance of
moderate to high heat impacts and the need associated heat
products for at least interior areas by Tuesday of next week. The
ridge may squash the marine layer and associated low clouds back
to the coast with an uptick of northerly flow Sunday potentially
clearing at least south facing coasts. Southwest Santa Barbara
County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor may reach advisory
level northwest winds around the Sunday/Monday time frame, which
could locally enhance warming trends such as for the Santa
Barbara County South Coast including Santa Barbara City.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0300Z.

At 00Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2500 feet and 25 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in more low cloud coverage over the region
tonight into Wednesday, but generally low confidence in exact
coverage and timing. There is a chance for brief LIFR ceilings
and visibility at KSBP (20%) and KSBA (10%). There is a chance
for IFR conditions at KOXR (30%), KSMO (40%) and KLAX (40%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Cigs may dissipate and
reform over the TAF site throughout the night. No significant
easterly winds are expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through Wednesday with
seasonal winds.

&&

.MARINE...25/117 PM.

Patchy dense fog will cover more of the area tonight and
Wednesday, with a possibility of being dense especially off the
Central Coast.

There is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind
gusts this tonight in the Outer Waters (offshore waters of the
Central Coast to San Nicolas Island). Otherwise high confidence in
quieter than usual conditions into Wednesday.

Northwest winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday. High
confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters, with a 20-40%
chance of low-end gale force winds (highest chances well off the
Central Coast). For the nearshore waters, the is a 40-60% chance
of SCA winds along the Central Coast (afternoon and evening hours)
and a 20% chance for the western Santa Barbara Channel. Higher
chances on Thursday.

Winds will gradually weaken Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM
      PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM
      PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Smith
AVIATION...Phillips/RK
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox