Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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715 FXUS63 KLSX 140734 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 234 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - As the remnants of Francine continue to weaken, its influence on our area decrease through the weekend. We transition from cloudy and cool with a few showers to more sun, warmer, and drier. - Dry and warm conditions are expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The upper level flow pattern continues to feature a trough over the western US and a ridge over the east, currently centered near the Great Lakes. To the south of this ridge, the remnants of Francine have stalled and weakened over the past few days. As of early this morning, the center of the surface level circulation was not well defined but located somewhere just south of Memphis, TN. As it has weakened it has transitioned more to a mid and upper level low, with showers and thunderstorms associated with pockets of vorticity and lift rotating around this low. While the low itself gradually retreats to the southeast this weekend, the broader trough axis associated with it shifts westward across our area. This means that the areas most likely to see a few showers or a stray thunderstorm from this will gradually shift westward across our forecast area today and tomorrow. In fact, latest CAMs are in pretty strong agreement that the area of impact will be to our west by Sunday, with global scale ensembles supporting this trend as well. Overall rain chances are decreasing as Francine`s influence wanes. What rain does fall is likely to be minor and localized. Temperatures today and Sunday will be largely dependent on cloud cover. Where clouds hang on, temperatures stay in the 70s. With more sun, temperatures warm toward the mid to upper 80s. Satellite imagery early this morning has already shown considerably more breaks in the clouds which will support a trend toward more sun than we saw yesterday, with that trend continuing into Sunday as well. The warmest temperatures will be in the north and east where confidence in more sunshine is greater and the influence of the eastern US ridge is stronger. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The remnant low from Francine continues to weaken and shear out across the southern US on Monday. In fact, the focus begins to shift toward a new low developing off the Southeast coast. This leaves us primarily under the influence of the ridge favoring dry and warm conditions. NBM does hold on to some low PoP mainly across the western forecast area on Monday, although this may be overdone if recent trends continue. The rest of the week remains dry. While multiple waves eject out of the western US trough, they stay far enough to our west to have no appreciable impact on our area. The ridge, and the associated dry and warm conditions, hold on at least through next weekend. This leads to a relatively high confidence forecast for much of this week. This confidence is reflected in the NBM interquartile range for temperatures which remains below 5 degrees all the way through Friday. Look for highs of 85 to 90 each day with no relief from the developing drought. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 We continue to be influenced by the remnant circulation from the tropical low to our south. Some areas of lower ceilings have been observed in central Missouri, and guidance suggests IFR conditions are possible here into Saturday morning. However, low level flow is out of the east and a good deal of clearing has been noted which may prevent the development of more extensive low clouds. Quincy and the St Louis metro are more likely to stay VFR, although pockets of MVFR could rotate through. Shower activity associated with the low is expected to increase tomorrow afternoon and could affect the St Louis metro, although chances are pretty low and so far we are only using the VCSH remark to denote this. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX