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FXUS64 KLUB 012323 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Updated the forecast this evening and overnight to remove PoPs and
mention of severe storms. Latest trends in both satellite and
various HRRR runs are proving unfavorable for convection southwest
of Artesia and farther north towards I40 to survive its journey
downstream into a stable airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday morning)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast area remains fairly stable early this afternoon in the wake
of the morning showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures have been
steadily warming thanks to the clear skies though and with dewpoints
still in the upper 50s to lower 60s instability will continue to
increase as we go through the late afternoon. Aloft, ridging remains
in place over the forecast area so this subsidence combined with a
cap around 650 mb will keep our forecast area dry through the early
evening hours. However, as a shortwave works through the ridge this
evening, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of
eastern New Mexico and then shift east. The environment ahead of
this activity will be conducive to maintain strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the biggest concern.
Theta-e axis is expected across the southern South Plains and
Rolling Plains this evening so this corridor would be most favored
to see a complex of storms to roll across. Activity is expected to
diminish early tomorrow morning however similar to this morning
nuisance showers/thunderstorms may persist through sunrise although
the severe threat will be minimal.

Surface troughing will increase tomorrow across eastern New Mexico
which will veer winds to a southerly to southwesterly direction.
These downsloping winds will help to boost high temperatures into
the low to mid 90s on the Caprock tomorrow while east of the
escarpment high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower
90s. This will also help to mix the dryline farther east than the
previous few days with the dryline situated near the TX/NM state
line by the early afternoon. Convective temperatures are expected to
be breached by the mid to late afternoon hours within an environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear
values of around 40 kts. Obviously any outflow boundary that remains
in the forecast area would be a focus area for thunderstorm
development otherwise the dryline should be the primary forcing
mechanism. With nearly straight hodographs, splitting supercells
would initially be favored with large hail up to tennis ball size
and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph. This activity will spread east
through the night and as it does so may begin to cluster as a cold
pool strengthens with primarily a damaging wind threat across the
Rolling Plains. The other concern with this activity is that with
several rounds of thunderstorms over the past few days localized
flash flooding would be possible as any right moving supercell will
be fairly slow moving leading to heavy rainfall. Showers and
thunderstorms should come to an end around midnight with dry
conditions continuing through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog
may be possible Monday morning especially for locations that see
heavier rainfall Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Hot and dry conditions will return early next week with zonal flow
aloft and southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high
temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday across much of the area
with the latter being the slightly hotter day, potentially breaking
daily records. A "cold" front will move through late Tuesday
evening, although this will neither bring precipitation nor much
cooler temperatures as highs will still reach the mid 90s on
Wednesday. The next meaningful chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be later Thursday with a moist low-level ESE flow and weak
upper waves. The unsettled pattern looks to continue Friday and into
the weekend although details remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A window exists for MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs at CDS before
daybreak on moistening southerly winds. Otherwise, VFR prevails
with mostly light winds, becoming breezy late Sunday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93