752
FXUS64 KLUB 182332
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
632 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Tonight will bring mild and clear conditions as the upper-level
ridge still remains over us. The surface low currently overhead will
continue retrograding towards New Mexico backing winds
southerly/southeasterly across the CWA. Into tomorrow, the upper-
level ridge will move towards the east ahead of a broad upper-level
trough located in the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the trough,
multiple synoptic shortwaves will form east of the Rockies allowing
a Lee cyclone to form in western Kansas. While the northern extent
of the Low should keep the precipitation outside of our CWA, a
dryline will form extending all the way down to the Mexican border.
The current forecast is for a weak dryline to remain off of the
Caprock and eventually move east. Nevertheless, with generally
capped soundings, PoPs were kept low with far northeastern portions
of our CWA near 10%. Additionally, MOS guidance shows hot temps for
tomorrow with the possibility of reaching 100 degrees. Surface winds
will be southwesterly on the Caprock with southerly winds ahead of
the dryline in the Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The upper ridge will continue to flatten Monday pushing the axis of
the ridge across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Temps will
still remain warm Monday with highs in the mid/upper 90s to near 100
as upper flow remains out of the southwest. An upper shortwave will
push a front through the region Tuesday night/early Wednesday which
should help cool temps back into the 80s Wednesday. Surface flow
will quickly return to the southeast Thursday as the upper shortwave
passes to our east. A second embedded shortwave trough is progged to
push across the region Thursday. There is still some disagreement
with precip chances as the upper shortwave moves overhead and will
ultimately depend on the timing and location of the dryline. The
ECMWF is much quicker than the GFS with pushing the dryline through
the FA (late Friday afternoon). and results in a drier forecast. The
GFS is much slower with the dryline and keeps it across eastern New
Mexico/our western zones until early Friday. Currently the Rolling
Plains has the best chances for convection Thursday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12