Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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355 FXUS64 KLUB 171945 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 An upper level shortwave trough that was located over New Mexico this morning has begun to eject northeastward, currently passing over the TXPH. Meanwhile, southerly surface winds have maintained a moist airmass, indicated by a tongue of higher 850mb theta-e values over the CWA. A dryline sits on the western edge of this theta-e relative maximum near the TX/NM state line, and this boundary may provide lift for thunderstorm development this evening. Model soundings indicate that by 0Z Tuesday, diurnal heating in the western South Plains and far southwest could overcome inhibition from the 850-700mb warm layer noted in this morning`s observed soundings at AMA and MAF. Should this occur, a supercell or two may develop along the dryline and propagate ENE through late evening. Inverted-v soundings and CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg support the potential for severe wind gusts with any storms, and favorable mid-level lapse rates indicate the potential for large hail. The storm threat is expected to diminish after midnight. Tuesday morning`s lows will be mild, with upper 60s and low 70s common across the CWA as morning stratus accompanies increasingly moist southerly surface flow. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with the higher temperatures across the western South Plains. Although the dryline will be present near the TX/NM state line again tomorrow, rising heights aloft should limit the potential for thunderstorm development through the short term period. Nevertheless, if CI occurs, storms would form in the far southwest in the late afternoon and move eastward, reaching the I-27 corridor by early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The latest model suite suggests that there could be some isolated thunderstorm and/or shower activity waning across mainly the northern half of the forecast area Tuesday evening, before giving way to a mild and moist night as the southeasterly LLJ begins to pump GoM moisture up into the Texas South Plains. In fact this could lead to some areas of low stratus developing by Wednesday morning. The moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday as the forecast area becomes situated between longwave toughing across the Western States and a low pressure system in the western GoM. The pressure pattern between these two systems will result in a low-level ridge axis amplifying from NW to SE across TX, bringing deepening E-SE, upslope flow. All this will put downward pressure on temps, and highs should fall back in to the 80s, and perhaps some locations topping out in the 70s if greater cloud cover materializes. The cooler temperatures should keep most of the area capped through the early afternoon, but the initial lift from the Gulf low may reach the Rolling Plains as early as mid to late afternoon, resulting in some shower development, possibly spreading west Wednesday evening. Thursday appears to hold the best rain chances for the majority of our forecast area with the tropical system making its closest approach on its track westward (or west-northwestward). There is still some degree of spread between the medium-range guidance on exactly how the system will track, but in general it appears that the bulk of the lift and deepest tropical moisture will be off to our south as we remain situated on the northern periphery of the track. That said, we`ll still see a significant amounts of moisture flowing into the area. PWATs will range from about 1.25 to 2 inches, or above the 97th %tile for this time of year. We`ll be lacking much instability with cool temps and a nearly saturated profile along with any focus for lift aside from the upslope flow, so this will temper our expectations for heavy rain - although not completely rule it out at this point. 0.25 to .75 inches of rain appears to encompass much of the potential of this system, although some higher amounts could still be realized given how efficient the shower activity should be. By Friday, the remnant tropical wave should be well west of us, progressing on west through NM and Far West Texas. However, elevated moisture should linger across the area, and coupled with better instability as temperatures recover behind the departing wave, could lead to scattered showers and t-storms Friday afternoon. 90s should return for the weekend as broad ridging strengthens from the 4-corners to TX. It`s not totally out of the question that we could see a few t-storms during the late afternoon and evening hours Sat and Sun, mainly across the far southeast TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains, but it should be dry for most. Better rain chances may return early next week as the upper ridge retreats southwestward in the face of additional shortwave energy moving through the Rockies. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon and evening. Breezy winds should continue throughout the period, with the occasional 30kt wind gust possible at all terminals. This evening, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, to develop along the TX/NM state line and move toward PVW and LBB into the overnight hours. However, confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Towards sunrise, stratus should move into the CWA from the southeast, producing MVFR conditions at all terminals through mid-morning Tuesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93/DF LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...DF