Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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183 FXUS64 KLUB 221115 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level high continuing its westward progression into the South Plains region early this morning. By this afternoon, the upper level ridge is expected to suppress over the FA, allowing for relatively zonal flow aloft to prevail. As expected, dry and quiet conditions are expected to unfold across most of the FA this afternoon with the upper level ridge overhead. However, low-level moisture trapped underneath the ridge will remain locked in place with afternoon dew point temperatures well above normal for this time of year in the 60s. In addition, a small plume of monsoonal moisture is expected to remain across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. If enough destabilization occurs today from diurnal heating, we may see a similar pattern as previous with isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Chances for thunderstorms remain slim, with the best chances remaining well to our north and west where the better moisture and instability resides. Regardless, a warm day is on tap for the FA with temperatures a few degrees warmer than previous. Lee cyclogenesis will work to shift winds out of the southwest this morning, which in combination with increased thickness values will work to boost temperatures into the low to mid 90s this afternoon under clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning as the models are in good agreement with the evolution of the pattern over the CONUS during the upcoming. Specifically, an upper level high that has been centered over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic for much of the last week will retrograde across the southern half of the CONUS, finally coming to rest over the desert southwest by midweek. This will result in hot temperatures returning to the forecast area with highs frequently in the upper 90s to just over the 100 degree mark. Low level moisture is progged to remain in place across the area as well, especially the eastern zones off the Caprock where the highest temperatures are also expected. As such, heat index values there may reach Heat Advisory criteria (i.e., 105- 109 degrees) with the best chance of that currently looking to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps the most significant trend in the 00Z model suite is for less of a chance for northwest flow thunderstorms in the Tuesday to Thursday period with a shift toward a stronger, more expansive ridge to our west and a digging short wave trough farther to the east than previously expected, now favoring southern Atlantic coast for that feature rather than the lower Mississippi Valley. NBM will be slow to mix that completely out of the forecast, but a slight decrease in precip chances was noted, and for the moment has been retained. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will continue to shift out of the southwest this morning. becoming breezy before diminishing late this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12