301
FXUS64 KLUB 221905
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A typical summertime pattern will continue through the rest of
the weekend. Upper level ridging currently over the lower
Mississippi River Valley will continue to shift west tonight and
will settle over central Texas on Sunday. A minor short wave
moving over top the ridge on Sunday will bring a slight weakness
in the height fields from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle. This may initiate some very isolated convection in the
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle on Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, the increase in heights/thickness values aloft will
bring warmer temperatures to the region on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The forecast remains on track with little change necessitated for
the afternoon package and a continuation of the slight, downward
trend in PoPs throughout the week. At the beginning of the period,
the mid/upper-level pattern will feature an expansion of a 592 dam
subtropical ridge across the southern U.S., with the 250 mb
anticyclone becoming centered over northern Chihuahua and southern
New Mexico as the corresponding, near-zonal jet streak at its apex
translates across the central Rocky Mountains. At the surface,
breezy, southerly flow will evolve by Monday afternoon as lee
cyclogenesis occurs in the west-central High Plains in response to
the jet streak aloft. Boundary-layer mixing should be capped to
around 700 mb owing to the magnitude of subsident air aloft, with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s across most of the CWA
and to the century mark for locales nearest the 100th meridian. Heat
stress will gradually increase beyond Monday across the Rolling
Plains as overnight lows will struggle to fall below the upper 70s,
and some locations in the Rolling Plains may observe lows near 80
degrees on Tuesday morning while temperatures cool off farther west
up on the Caprock Escarpment.

Amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to occur by
mid-week, with its amplitude modulated by the presence of either a
barotropic low or narrow, but open, mid-level trough west of Baja
California. There remains unity among the global NWP guidance suites
with the center of the mid- and upper-level anticyclone remaining
stalled over the southern Rocky Mountains. Return flow will be left
intact at the surface as a result, with the right exit-region of the
250 mb, anticyclonically-curving jet streak nosing over the TX PH.
Hot surface temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees are
expected each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday across the CWA,
and the plume of middle-upper 60 degree dewpoints will lead to
afternoon heat indices rising to near between 103-106 degrees across
the Rolling Plains. (Criteria for a Heat Advisory are temperatures
or heat indices between 105-109 degrees for the Rolling Plains.)

Farther west, deeper boundary-layer mixing will cause temperatures
to peak in the upper 90s throughout the week. PoPs have been lowered
slightly from the previous prognostications for areas across the
extreme southern TX PH and South Plains, and the best potential for
diurnally-driven, slow-moving thunderstorms continues to be across
the extreme southwestern TX PH based off the position of the 250 mb
anticyclone and jet streak. Individual and area-averaged soundings
indicate tall, skinny CAPE profiles of at least 1,000 J/kg; however,
warming of the mid-levels should temper convective organization as
cells propagate out of the northwest. Otherwise, doldrum-like
conditions are expected for the entire period as the core of the
subtropical ridge wobbles across the State of Texas.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01