Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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564 FXUS64 KLUB 130734 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to build overhead today resulting in warmer temperatures due to increased heights/thickness values. Some mid level moisture will be trapped within the ridge today across eastern New Mexico. A surface pressure trough stretching from eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle will create enough low level convergence combined with the hot temperatures to initiate thunderstorm development. Stronger steering flow out of the northwest will give this convection more of a southeasterly movement this afternoon and evening but is still expected to dissipate short of the FA. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The upper high will be centered overhead by tomorrow with the upper shortwave/upper low approaching the Four Corners. Models continue to be in good agreement with bringing the upper shortwave over northeastern New Mexico/eastern Colorado by late tomorrow night with convection developing across east-central New Mexico into Kansas. Convection continues to look possible mainly across our northwestern zones tomorrow night into early Saturday morning. While the severe threat is low, some storms could be strong to low end severe with strong winds being the primary threat. Models are becoming more in agreement with isolated to scattered convection being possible across the FA late Saturday and again Sunday evening. Saturday chances will be as the upper shortwave trough axis moves overhead and then to our east. Sunday chances are due to another weak upper shortwave trough passing overhead. Much of early to next week will be on the breezy side. An upper trough will dominate the western CONUS with an upper high dominating the eastern CONUS. Surface lee troughing will develop ahead of the upper trough and will help keep surface winds predominately out of the south to southeast around 15-20 mph. While the overall forecast is dry in terms of precip, there are slight hints of afternoon popcorn convection being possible as embedded shortwaves move from northern Mexico northeastward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS and visbys will approach from the southeast but are expected to remain out of the terminals early Thursday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...01