805
FXUS64 KLUB 161713
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1213 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms has made its way into the southern South
Plains and will continue to track southeastward over the next few
hours. These are not expected to become severe but could produce
brief gusty winds and heavy downpours. Quiet conditions are expected
thereafter across the area with lows bottoming out near 70. Today
will be similar to that of the previous days with mostly sunny skies
and highs reaching the mid 90s in the afternoon with breezy
southerly winds, potentially gusting up to 30 mph. While moisture
will remain abundant with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s and PWATs
even slightly higher than yesterday, there is no distinct upper
trough or LLJ to provide much in the way of forcing. While an
isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot completely be ruled out,
there are no mentionable PoPs in the current forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A potentially active period of weather is anticipated for the
upcoming week but details remain nebulous. A strong upper ridge will
continue to build over the eastern CONUS with mean troughing in the
western CONUS with West Texas in the middle of these two features.
The troughing in the western US will generally keep low level
moisture feeding into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Surface
cyclogenesis will develop in lee of the Rockies both on Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. This will keep the dryline from mixing too far
eastward on Monday. Increasing strength of the surface cyclone will
increase low level convergence along the dryline close to the
Texas/New Mexico state line. Very deep boundary layer mixing will
occur near the dryline to somewhere between 2 and 2.5km mixing depth
under hot temperatures in the mid 90s. A strong elevated mixed layer
will further allow forecast mixed layer instabilities to possibly
exceed 2000 J/kg due to very steep mid level lapse rates on the
order of 8-9C/km. However, this warm air aloft will be difficult to
overcome but models now show very weak to little capping around 00Z
or so potentially allowing for some isolated convection in the
western South Plains capable of producing strong wind gusts and to a
lesser extent, large hail. The surface low will be farther to the
south in southeastern Colorado on Tuesday afternoon owing to a front
moving through the Northern and Central Plains. Otherwise, the set
up will mostly be the same as Monday except for stronger capping
most likely preventing isolated convection. Better chances for
convection will exist farther north in the Texas Panhandle where the
slow moving frontal boundary will intersect the dryline.

The forecast becomes increasingly vague from Wednesday and beyond as
the front looks to stall well north of the area. But this will
continue to allow low level moisture to surge into the region
through the end of the week. A remnant tropical system or tropical
wave will be moving westward out of the western Gulf of Mexico
across South Texas during the second half of the week. Increased
cloud cover late in the week from the tropical wave will keep
temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR with steady S-SE winds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts
through the night and especially after daybreak Monday. Could see
some LLWS at times overnight from a 45 knot LLJ should sustained
winds dip below 15 knots, but winds overall should remain very
breezy. Any TS that manage to develop late today will hold well
west of PVW-LBB before dying around sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93