Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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499 FXUS64 KLUB 121725 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The recent rainfall will not be enough to keep down temperatures from the oppressive subtropical ridge building into the southwestern CONUS today. This will result in quickly rising heights/thickness values and thus warming temperatures. Temperatures today will be close to or just below seasonal averages. Southerly low level flow will likely create isolated convection off the mountains in eastern New Mexico. But weak steering flow will keep this activity to the west of the area through the evening. A morning of low stratus and fog is not expected for Thursday morning with winds more out of a southerly direction rather than southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An upper low west of Baja will kick the upper high eastward from the Four Corners with the high being centered over the FA by late tomorrow night. The upper low will transition to an open wave trough as it moves across the Desert Southwest and continues kicking the upper high eastward towards the northern GOMEX. Models have trended with bringing the upper trough on a more southerly track as it approaches eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This also brings thunderstorm chances southward with the NBM bringing likely PoPs into our northwestern zones Friday evening. While chances are higher for thunderstorms to move into the central and even southern Texas Panhandle, confidence is not high enough at the moment for likely PoPs and have been lowered to high-end chance. Upper troughing will dominate the western CONUS this weekend into early/mid next week. Models are in decent agreement with having an embedded upper low/shortwave over Idaho and Montana Monday/early Tuesday with an associated surface low stretching along the Foothills into the Northern Plains. This upper low will tighten the surface gradient across much of the Great Plains and allow for breezy conditions Monday into Wednesday. Though beyond the forecast period, models diverge greatly by Wednesday into late week. The ECMWF quickly brings a strong blocking high over the Central Plains that dominates the southern half of the CONUS. The GFS brings a front southward by mid week as the upper trough moves across the Northern Plains. The front mixes with moisture from a remnant tropical system to develop widespread heavy rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Low clouds from this morning have dissipated at the terminals, and VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the evening. Overnight into sunrise tomorrow, there is potential for low clouds at all sites, which may yield IFR conditions through mid- morning. However, confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...58