095
FXUS64 KLUB 212316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An upper-level ridge centered over Texas is expected to gradually
move westward during the short term period. Surface moisture lingers
across the forecast area, and showers are possible this afternoon
and early evening across the northern South Plains and far southern
TXPH. However, with the lack of synoptic forcing for convection,
showers should taper off after sunset once diurnal heating is lost.
Tomorrow morning, as the ridge becomes more firmly established over
the CWA, the southeasterly low-to-mid level flow that has sustained
Today`s moist environment will begin to slowly become southwesterly.
Saturday`s morning lows are expected to be mild, but warming from
downsloping winds should return high temperatures to the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to retrograde westward on
Sunday and through early next week as the broad, larger-scale
troughing over the western U.S. attenuates into a zonal regime as
the progressive flow pattern shifts into Canada. At the surface, a
diffuse troughing pattern will exist in response to the leeward
pressure falls associated with weak cyclogenesis in northeastern New
Mexico and as frontolysis occurs across the south-central Great
Plains. The initially veered surface flow will back to the south and
south-southeast on Sunday while remaining light at around 10 mph.
High temperatures were raised a few degrees, particularly across the
Rolling Plains, for Sunday afternoon to align with the recent MOS
guidance as triple-digit temperatures are forecast across those
locales beneath the near-neutral to slightly-positive geopotential
height tendencies.

The CWA will remain within the barotropic airmass through the
remainder of the forecast period as the mid/upper-level ridge stalls
in the vicinity of or west of the CWA on Monday into Tuesday. There
is considerable agreement in this synoptic-scale evolution across
all global NWP guidance suites, and near-triple-digit temperatures
continue to be forecast mid-week across portions of the Caprock and
Rolling Plains. Heat index values may near 105 degrees across the
eastern zones on Tuesday and Wednesday amidst southerly, low-level
flow beneath the right exit-region to the anticyclonically-curved,
250 mb jet streak. Modification of tropical moisture should occur as
it advects around the western and northern periphery of the stout
ridging aloft, with the potential for thunderstorms (some severe)
returning during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through
Thursday across the Caprock and into the Rolling Plains. The mean
storm motion vector will be augmented by the belt of high-level,
northwesterly flow associated with the exit-region to the 250 mb jet
streak; and the anemic, mid-level flow would foster a slow movement
of cells that would be governed by propagation amidst the reservoir
of high PWAT content. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
any convective episode during the middle part of next week. NWP
guidance is also in agreement with a longitudinal extension and
phasing of the amplified, subtropical ridge over the North Atlantic,
with the potential for easterly trade winds to shift into central
and western Texas beyond the scope of the long-term period.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period.
Winds will diminish this evening and eventually veer to the
southwest by morning. Winds will become breezy at all terminals
late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...58