Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
926 FXUS64 KLUB 251126 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A cold front has cleared the area early this morning which will lead to cooler temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will be knocked back down close to seasonal averages due to this front. A surface ridge moving down the Missouri River valley will lead to light winds through early Thursday morning. At the same time, an upper level ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Rockies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 An upper level trough currently centered over the central Midwest is progged to deepen and dive into the Mississippi River Valley through the long term period. Meanwhile, upper level ridging off to our west will continue to amplify, extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains. This will set-up a blocking pattern across the CONUS which will lead to dry and fair weather conditions in the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week and into early next week. Uncertainty remains on the development of Tropical Cyclone Helene as it moves onshore the AL/FL shore Thursday. There is a chance this would push the upper level trough back to the west where we could see a few disturbances in the flow aloft track down the backside of the low generating thunderstorm potential. However, ensemble and deterministic guidance is not keen on this possibility therefore have opted to run with NBM silent PoPs through the long-term period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR is expected through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...01