Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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499 FXUS64 KLUB 241841 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Upper air analysis this early-afternoon depicts a high-amplitude trough digging into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, with an intense, 250 mb jet streak nosing southward over West Texas as per recent water-vapor imagery. A baroclinic leaf located within the upstream tranche of this trough has since become more-disheveled in appearance owing to the net increase in subsidence/NVA progressing southward over the west-central Great Plains. Cirrus bands were collocated with the incoming mid-level cold front that was also moving southward across the TX PH, and no cumulus have been evident yet on visible satellite imagery near and north of this front despite ample heating. At the surface, the cold front was located north of the I-40 corridor, while the CWA remained within the moist sector, albeit veered flow, with dewpoints currently in the lower 60s across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. The cold front is forecast to cross into the extreme southern TX PH in a couple of hours, with its movement further enhanced by the loss of diabatic heating later this evening as it clears the CWA by sunset. Despite the plume of dewpoints in the lower 60s, and favorable surface and low-level convergence along the southward-moving cold front, PoPs were removed for this afternoon due to the latter presentation on satellite. A few TCU will be possible, but dry air entrainment via the rapid increase in subsident air aloft should undercut any cu field from morphing into storms. Pressure rises post-FROPA will yield a brief period of breezy, northerly winds, before pressure tendencies stabilize and winds diminish overnight as a weak surface high moves into the TX PH. Drying of the low-levels post-FROPA will eliminate any potential for fog tonight, with excellent radiational cooling delivering lows in the lower-middle 50s on the Caprock and into the lower 60s across the Rolling Plains. High temperatures were lowered slightly from the NBM to align with MOS as strong subsidence aloft caps mixing heights below 700 mb amidst a light, northeasterly wind. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A blocking pattern will persist over the CONUS through the long term portion of the forecast with an upper ridge located over the Four Corners northward toward the northern Rockies and a trough over the Mississippi Valley. This will lead to a persistence-based forecast with dry, fair sensible weather and near-normal temperatures. NBM handles the scenario well with no deviation from it at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR prevails for the TAF period. A cold front will move through the terminals later this evening, shifting winds to the north while remaining at around 10 kt. Isolated -TSRA will be possible in the vicinity of KCDS late this afternoon, but coverage is too limited to include in the TAF. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...09